2022 Midterms: More Incumbents Ousted in Primaries Than Any Cycle Since 1980s

Fifteen members of Congress lost during the recently completed primaries for the 2022 midterm election cycle, nearly double those who were denied renominations in 2020 and the highest number of sitting lawmakers ousted by party rivals since the 1980s.

The incumbents include nine Republicans and six Democrats. That number tops the 14 House members who were unseated in 1992 primaries—which presaged 1994’s midterm conservative capture of the House that led to Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) becoming speaker—and the 13 voted out in the 2012 primaries, when Tea Party activists rattled the GOP.

But the fact that more incumbents lost primary races in 2022 than, perhaps, in 40 years, isn’t evidence of an emerging anti-incumbent trend but confirmation that sitting House members and senators rarely lose reelection bids.

U.S. House and Senate incumbents have a 90-percent plus reelection rate, including 94.72 percent in this year’s primaries, according to analyses by OpenSecrets.org.

House incumbents were reelected at a 94.7 percent clip in 2020, 91 percent in 2018, 96.7 percent in 2016, 95.4 in 2014, 89.8 in 2012, and 85.4 percent in 2010, OpenSecrets.org indicated. The chamber’s lowest reelection rate in the past 50 or so years was 85 percent in 1970.

Senate incumbents were reelected at an 83.9 rate in 2020, 84.4 percent clip in 2018, and 93.1 percent in 2016. The chamber’s lowest reelection rate in recent history, 55 percent, occurred in 1980, when Republicans flipped 12 seats to gain control of the Senate for the first time since 1955, according to OpenSecrets.org.

All 435 U.S. House seats and 34 U.S. Senate seats—20 held by Republicans, 14 by Democrats—are on the Nov. 8 ballot. Democrats have a 221-212 advantage in the House with Republicans favored to flip at least five seats to gain control of the chamber. The Senate is split 50-50, with Democrats

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