2024 elections: Republicans eye David McCormick as their best bet to pick up Pennsylvania Senate seat

Pennsylvania Republicans are cautiously optimistic they can win a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2024 following last year’s electoral let-down — if they choose the right candidate.

David McCormick is a businessman who has released a book on Tuesday. It has fueled speculation that he might challenge Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), to fill his seat in 2024. Even though it would be a fight, GOP operatives see him as their best chance to redress their loss to Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) 2022

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“I’d say the odds are better than even. I know that a lot of people are encouraging him to run,” Charlie Gerow, former Pennsylvania gubernatorial hopeful and Republican strategist, told The Washington Examiner.

“He’d be the odds-on favorite in the Republican primary, and I think he would do exceptionally well in the general election. He matches up well against Bob Casey on a variety of different planes, from personality to policy,” Gerow also added. “He has a certain understated charisma.”

McCormick’s The Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan for Renewing America His conservative agenda was laid out, and it has been seen as a prelude to running for the Senate. He will embark on a book tour, beginning with Pittsburgh on Wednesday. A book was published by former Sen. Pat Toomey, R-PA, around the time he joined the Senate race back in 2010.

McCormick launched a media campaign ahead of the release and recently tapped two veterans political operatives who worked for Sen. Marco Rubio, (R-FL). According to The Washington Post. He has been in touch with other senior GOP leaders and spoke at the National Republican Senatorial Committee winter conference earlier this month.

McCormick was in a tight primary field during the 2022 cycle and lost by just 1,000 votes. This triggered a recount. Oz seemed buoyed at the time by Trump’s endorsement and his name recognition.

“I think that there were just so many other candidates that they each got small amounts, but those small amounts added up to enough that prevented Dave from winning,” John Brabender, a veteran Republican consultant, said.

Many Republican operatives believe McCormick will win this time, and that the party will unite around him.

“There’s a lot of people that look back at 2022 and say it was an absolute statewide disaster in Pennsylvania,” Brabender said. “We had a real chance to win the Senate race and didn’t. So, I think people immediately look around and say, ‘We probably would have been better off if David McCormick was our candidate in 2022.'”

“Sometimes, you can lose a race but gain a lot of respect in how you ran. And I think that’s what happened with Dave McCormick,” Brabender added.

A recent poll Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning polling firm, found that Doug Mastriano, former GOP gubernatorial candidate, topped McCormick in a Senate matchup by 39% to 21%. 11% opted for Kathy Barnette who had a late surge in 2022. Mastriano was defeated decisively by the now-Gov. Josh Shapiro (D–PA), and some Republicans blame him for being an obvious drag on Oz. He has actively The prospect was dangled Of jumping into the Senate Race.

“I think that there would be an intervention within the Republican Party if Mastriano seriously thought that he could run. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me,” Brabender said.

Top GOP brass have indicated this and are actively courting McCormick for the race. Senator Steve Daines, a Republican from Montana, is playing a larger role this cycle in the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s management than his predecessor and has publicly questioned Mastriano’s chances of winning.

“We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he can’t win a general,” Daines Telled HuffPost.

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Democrats have foreshadowed their intention to attack Oz with the same tactics as they used against Oz, focusing in on his wealth, should McCormick win the party nomination. McCormick was CEO of Bridgewater Associates from 2020-2022, which is one of the most important hedge funds in the globe.

“David McCormick’s latest attempt to hide his true record of outsourcing jobs and his close ties to China, Wall Street, and Mitch McConnell will fail, just like his last Senate campaign did,” David Bergstein, Communications Director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said in a statement.

Analysts say McCormick’s connections to the Keystone State will make it harder for him to be portrayed as a carpetbagger than Oz. GOP officials are optimistic that McCormick won’t make the same mistakes as Oz, including his verbal ones. Crudite gaffe This fed Democratic narratives about him being out of touch and disconnected from ordinary Pennsylvanians.

“He is originally from Bloomsburg, which is an old kind of industrial area of north central PA,” J. Wesley Leckrone, a professor at Widener University, said. “He does have some cred that I think Oz probably didn’t, but anytime you’re running against somebody who’s managed a hedge fund, you’re always going to use that.”

Democrats will face one of their most brutal Senate maps ever in 2024. They will be required to defend 23 seats. Three of those seats are held by independent Democratic-aligned senators. Republicans have 11 seats to defend, meaning that the GOP is better equipped to focus their financial resources on their pursuit of the majority than Democrats.

Casey is still a formidable opponent. In 2018, Casey defeated his Republican opponent by a score of 55.7% to 42.6%. Casey also won in 2012, 2006 and 2007. His father, former Gov. Bob Casey Sr.

“I have always assumed that Casey would be a senator for life. He’s pretty much the perfect Democrat for Pennsylvania,” Leckrone stated. “He kind of fit into the old style of working-class Democrat in Pennsylvania, but those people have become Trump Republicans. So, it’s a real test for him.”

His political brilliance aside, GOP operatives have ruined his record.

“Casey doesn’t have much of a record for having served in the U.S. Senate for a generation. I mean, what’s Bob Casey’s signature piece of legislation?” Gerow asked. “Bob Casey got the job because he was his father’s son. Let’s be candid.”

Casey was recently treated with prostate cancer. Fetterman, his Pennsylvania counterpart, was recently admitted to the hospital with depression. He continues to suffer from stroke-related ailments.

“It’s a real possibility there’s gonna be two Senate seats open next year,” One Republican operative spoke out in reference to Fetterman’s health issues. “It’s the thousand-pound gorilla standing in the middle of the room that nobody wants to talk about, including myself. But that’s a real possibility.”

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Republicans suffered a devastating defeat in Pennsylvania’s last year’s election. They failed to win the governor’s job, lost control over the state House and lost the Senate race. The 2024 election will ultimately be a test to see if the party is losing its influence in the Keystone State.

“Pennsylvania is still a swing state, just like it always is, but it’s harder for Republicans to win than Democrats statewide. And you have to have the right candidate to be able to do that,” Brabender said.