However, following Democrats’ sweeping loss in the 2024 elections, in which the White House and  Senate flipped and the House stayed in Republican control, the battlefield for the upper chamber in 2026 is not looking any more promising.

Republicans hold a majority in the Senate with 53 seats to Democrats’ 47, including two independents, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), who caucus with Democrats.

Thirteen Senate Democrats are up for reelection with four competitive seats the party will have to defend heavily: incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and open seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Twenty-two Senate Republican seats are up for reelection, but only Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) are rated as competitive seats. Both Collins and Tillis are expected to face tough primaries.

Far more challenging are the margins in the House. Republicans hold a razor-thin, 220-213 majority in the House after two Republicans from Florida were sworn in immediately after winning special elections Tuesday. Two vacancies on the Democratic side, resulting from a pair of deaths, have yet to be filled in Texas and Arizona.

Democrats are on defense in the House, with 39 seats rated competitive compared to 29 for the GOP. Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to flip the House. Historically, the House flips to the party opposite the White House in the midterm elections, as it has for the last five presidencies.

But some House Democrats could make that path to chamber control more difficult for the party, as they are launching or weighing bids to either fill vacant seats or challenge fellow Democrats in the Senate. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) announced on Thursday that he is running for the Senate after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) said earlier this month that she would not seek reelection.

Republicans are giddy about the vacancy in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, already listing it as one of their early targets for the 2026 cycle before Pappas even made his announcement. The district is rated as “likely Democrat” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, though that could shift in the days to come as analysts determine whether the GOP can flip the seat red for the first time since 2017.

During the mid-2000s and the 2010s, the district was considered extremely competitive, as it changed hands in five of the eight elections during that time, with each incumbent losing reelection. Pappas broke that streak when he won reelection in 2020. In 2022, he became the first representative elected to a third consecutive term in the district since former GOP Rep. John Sununu.

Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) are not seeking reelection, opening the door for House Democrats in Michigan and Minnesota, respectively, to try and fill that seat. In Michigan’s case, it could put some districts in play after the state swung for President Donald Trump in 2024.

But with Trump’s name absent from the ballot and low turnout from GOP voters in midterm elections historically, Republicans will have a difficult path to flip seats if lawmakers such as Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI) and Haley Stevens (D-MI) enter the Michigan race.

The easiest grab of the two would be Michigan’s 8th Congressional District. McDonald Rivet won former Rep. Dan Kildee’s seat in one of the most competitive 2024 House races, and it is ranked “lean Democrat” for 2026.

Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow is the first Democratic candidate for the seat after she launched her bid Wednesday to succeed Peters. The Michigan Senate race is expected to be one of the most contested seats in the 2026 cycle. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg removed himself as an option for the contested seat last month, leaving the door open for a presidential run in 2028.

In Minnesota, Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and Angie Craig (D-MN) are weighing bids for the open Senate seat. Both of their districts are considered “solid Democrat,” so it would take significant effort and a stellar GOP candidate to flip those seats.

Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) could also be among the group of retiring Senate Democrats, although no decision has been made. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) raised a whopping $3 million in the first quarter of the year, adding to his massive $19 million war chest, leading to speculation for a possible Senate run if Durbin retires.

Illinois’s 8th Congressional District, which Krishnamoorthi represents, has not been held by a Republican since 2013, after former Rep. Joe Walsh lost to now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) in the 2012 elections. Still, the seat would likely become a target for the GOP.

It is not only the loss of House members to the upper chamber that each party has to worry about, though Republicans have yet to see a lawmaker announce a bid for Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) seat. Coming for both Democratic and Republican incumbents are tough primary challengers who believe they are the future of the party.

Over the last few weeks, many young progressive Democrats have launched bids against incumbents who they believe are outdating the party.

Democrat Jake Rakov is challenging his former boss, Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), calling for a new generation of Democrats. Democrat Saikat Chakrabarti, 39, the former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), launched a bid against former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

Influencer and former progressive watchdog group staffer Kat Abughazaleh, 26, announced her candidacy against incumbent Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) last month. Her campaign has already generated significant social media buzz and thousands of dollars in just a few short weeks.

Republicans, too, are preparing for tough primary challenges.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the senior senator for the Lone Star State, is expected to face a competitive primary in 2026 as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to hint at running. Paxton and Cornyn have a rocky relationship following the senator’s lack of support for the attorney general during his impeachment trial. Paxton has been a harsh critic of Cornyn since.

“I think it’s just time,” Paxton said of a Cornyn challenge. “He’s had his chance. He hasn’t performed well, and the voters know it. You can go a long time without people paying attention. And they’re paying attention now.”

Hanging over Republican primaries are threats from Trump to seek challengers to battle GOP incumbents who do not follow his agenda. The president has already called for a primary challenger for Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the sole Republican candidate to vote against the GOP-led budget resolution. Trump adviser Elon Musk has also pledged to fund campaigns for GOP challengers to Trump’s enemies and centrist candidates looking to oust Democratic incumbents.

Aside from primary challenges, tough general election challenges have already come in swinging.

Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie announced his bid against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) on Thursday. Harvie was elected county commissioner in 2020 when Democrats flipped the county board for the first time in decades.

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Fitzpatrick sits in a purple county in a purple state, where he has managed to hold his seat for five terms. He is one of the three Republicans representing a district that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump in 2024.

Rep. Emilia Sykes’s (D-OH) challenger from 2024, Kevin Coughlin, is back to fight for the seat once again, and redistricting could bolster his chances.