3 Ways China Could Strike Taiwan And What It Means For The U.S.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to take Taiwan. Seizing Taiwan is integral to CCP’s objective of dominating the world.

Taiwan isn’t just an island — it’s a geopolitical tripwire, a small, highly-prized self-ruled island of 23 million with a prominent stone spine. Strategically, it anchors the First Island Chain, a natural barricade from Japan to the Philippines that keeps China’s Pacific dreams in a bottle. For Beijing, cracking Taiwan open means breaking free into blue water and dominating Asia’s rim.

For the U.S., letting it slip is a gut punch. China’s reach would stretch to Guam, and America’s Pacific shield would splinter. Further, its semiconductor plants, led by TSMC, pump out 90 percent of the world’s advanced chips, powering everything from smartphones to stealth fighters. Lose that, and the global economy chokes.

That’s why Taiwan is the hinge of any Chinese move in the South China Sea.

If taking Taiwan is one of China’s end goals, what might be the strategy to achieve those ends — strategy being the combination of ends, ways — or courses of action and means?

In recent months, China has been conducting large-scale exercises around Taiwan. In February, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said these drills are “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for forced reunification of Taiwan with communist China.

China has three basic ways to grab Taiwan: a slow naval stranglehold, a lightning strike on Taipei, or a wild global attack that might even employ Mexican cartels. Each carries its own logic, risks, and U.S. counterpunch. To unpack them, we’ll lean on three strategic titans: Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, and Carl von Clausewitz, whose ideas still speak to today’s contests.

The Stakes: Why Taiwan’s the Hinge

Before diving into China’s options, let’s set the table. Taiwan’s not just a tech hub. It’s the tech hub. TSMC’s chips are the lifeblood of modern life, and a Chinese takeover would hand Beijing a chokehold on the world’s supply chain. Trillions of dollars are at risk.

Then there’s geography. Taiwan sits like a cork in China’s Pacific bottle, part of the First Island Chain that hems in Beijing’s 370-ship navy. If China pops that cork, its fleets roam free, more readily threatening Japan, the Philippines, and beyond. For the U.S., it’s a linchpin. Lose it, and the Pacific turns into China’s playground. Beijing’s ambitions are clear and openly stated: “reunification” by any means. The U.S.-led alliance — with Japan’s destroyers, Philippine bases, Australia’s grit, and America’s 11 carrier strike groups — stands in the way.

It would go one of three ways. Let’s break them down one by one.

Scenario 1: Blockade — Strangling Slow and Steady

Picture this: China’s navy rings Taiwan like a steel noose, turning the Taiwan Strait into a kill zone. Of course, 90 percent of Taiwan’s food and all its natural gas come by ship. Snip that lifeline, and the island starves in months. No invasion, no blood-soaked beaches, just a slow strangulation. This is American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan’s gospel: Sea power rules the world. Mahan, the prophet of naval supremacy, argued that whoever controls the waves controls the world. China’s fleet, now outnumbering America’s 290 ships, could flex that muscle, squeezing Taiwan’s economy and daring the U.S. to blink. But it’s not a slam dunk.

Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian master of war, would label this as attrition warfare — grind the enemy down, break their spirit over time. But time’s a double-edged sword. Taiwan might be tough; it might hold out longer than Beijing expects. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy with 11 carriers, attack subs, and a pack of allies, could steam in and turn the blockade into a shooting gallery. Japan’s 40 destroyers and Philippine airfields would join the fray, making it a Pacific cage match. China’s betting on patience, but the clock could tick against it.

Halford Mackinder’s lens sharpens the view. He saw the world as a clash between the Eurasian “Heartland” and the coastal “Rimland.” Taiwan’s a Rimland jewel — control it, and you dominate Asia’s edge. A blockade tests that theory, pressuring the Rimland to unite and push back with Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and others joining in, flipping China’s squeeze into a conflict it can’t win.

As for the U.S. response, it will likely be led by Admiral Paparo, of whom Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on March 28 while visiting the Philippines, a longstanding American ally, “It’s not my job to determine where the Seventh Fleet goes. I defer to Admiral Paparo and his war plans. Real war plans. Admiral Paparo understands the situation …” and is prepared to posture and create, “… dynamics and strategic dilemmas for the Communist Chinese that help them reconsider whether or not violence or action is something they want to undertake.”

So, how might Adm. Paparo use the forces at his command to counter a blockade? He’ll punch through with naval might and air power. Carrier strike groups backed by submarines and Air Force bombers, to shred the blockade. Cyber ops would blind China’s sensors, while sanctions hammer its energy imports. China’s a gas guzzler, and 70 percent of its oil sails through vulnerable straits (though it has been working to make itself immune via a massive strategic oil reserve and electrification of transportation). Freedom of navigation ops would dare Beijing to escalate.

For China, the blockade offers low body count and high leverage, testing U.S. resolve without a Pearl Harbor trigger. But time favors the U.S. alliance, Taiwan might dig in, and global backlash could isolate Beijing. America’s edge lies in naval dominance and alliance strength, avoiding a land war in Asia while rallying the world economy behind it. Still, ship losses to China’s missile swarms and a drawn-out standoff could erode public will.

Scenario 2: Surprise Attack — Taipei Before Breakfast

Now imagine this: Chinese missiles rain on Taiwan’s defenses, hackers crash its grid, and 100,000 troops hit the beaches — all before the U.S. wakes up. The goal? Seize Taipei in days and present the world with a done deal.

This is Clausewitz’s sweet spot: Decisive action, maximum force, crush the enemy’s will in one blow. War, he said, is politics with guns, and China’s political prize is Taiwan’s flag under Beijing’s boot. A blitz could deliver it fast. Mahan would love the payoff. Taking Taiwan shatters the First Island Chain, handing China the Pacific’s sea lanes. Those semiconductor plants? A trillion-dollar bonus. But Mahan knew sea power needs endurance. China’s 370 ships must fend off America’s 290, plus Japan’s fleet, in a knock-down, drag-out fight. Speed is the key; if the blitz stalls, it’s a quagmire.

Mackinder’s Rimland lens fits here too. Taiwan’s fall tightens China’s coastal grip, spooking Japan and the Philippines into submission. But it’s a gamble — push too hard, and the Rimland fights back. India, Australia, even South Korea might jump in, turning Asia’s edge into a hornet’s nest. The U.S. hits back hard and fast. U.S. bombers pre-positioned in Japan and Guam and submarines prowling the depths target People’s Liberation Army (PLA) supply lines — cut the umbilical, and the invasion starves. Cyber strikes cripple Chinese command, while arms flood into Taiwan. The aim: bog China down, then counterattack with overwhelming air and naval power.

For China, speed and shock could clinch it, leaving the U.S. scrambling and boosting Xi’s domestic standing. But Taiwan’s terrain favors defenders, and failure means global pariah status and a wrecked military. The U.S. gains by defending a democratic ally, flexing air and sea muscle, and reinforcing Pacific credibility. Still, America needs split-second coordination across allies, and if China digs in, it’s a brutal, bloody slog.

Scenario 3: Deep Surprise — Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

Here’s the wild card: China goes big. Missile barrages on Taiwan, U.S. bases in Japan, Guam, and the Philippines then throws a curveball. Beijing’s 20,000+ men of military age smuggled in under President Joe Biden, along with Mexican cartels, unleash hell on America’s infrastructure and border: attacks on power grids, shootouts at border crossings, smuggled saboteurs in Texas. It’s 1917’s Zimmermann Telegram redux — Imperial Germany tried to sic Mexico on the U.S. to distract from World War I — even sending military advisors to Mexico. Britain cracked the code, and America declared war on Germany.

This time, the stakes are higher. Clausewitz would recognize it as total war. Strike everywhere, confuse the enemy and attack his will to resist. But Clausewitz also warned of “friction” — war’s messy unpredictability. Cartels aren’t disciplined mercenaries. They might take China’s money and wreak havoc, or they might botch it. As for the Chinese nationals in the U.S., legal and illegal, have largely unknown capabilities and intentions. In both cases, if U.S. intel catches wind, China’s exposed, and the effort fizzles.

Mahan would roll his eyes. Fleets, not illegal aliens and felons, win wars. This land-based distraction dilutes China’s naval focus, risking a disaster in the Pacific. Mackinder, though, might see the genius. By tying Uncle Sam’s hands at home, China weakens Rimland cohesion. But Mackinder knew overreach invites ruin. Stirring Mexico could rouse a sleeping giant, just like 1917. The U.S. goes full throttle: Pacific strikes on PLA bases, National Guard to the border, sanctions that crush China’s economy. Cyber defenses lock down, and NATO might even flex. The goal: punish China globally while smothering the chaos.

For China, unleashing unrestricted warfare splits U.S. attention, buys invasion time, and tests alliance resolve. But it’s a high-risk gamble, especially if caught before launch. Further, the U.S. may gain by rallying worldwide outrage, reinforcing global leadership, and punishing China economically.

The Bottom Line: Vigilance or Bust

China’s got three ways to go at Taiwan: a patient choke, a lightning grab, or full chaos. Each taps aspects of Mahan’s sea power, Clausewitz’s decisive blows, and Mackinder’s Rimland chess. The U.S. counter stays rock-solid — naval might, alliance muscle, rapid punches.

America’s edge lies in vigilance, allies, and the will to slug it out if needed. China’s gamble? Picking the right play and hoping friction doesn’t lead to ruination.