The Billionaire Space Race, And The Brewing Interstellar Cold War

Humans exploring Mars and other nearby planets, ferried by spaceships and accommodated in floating hotels. Habitats orbiting the earth, as well as 10-minute flights from one side of the planet to the other. 

These are just a few of the ideas that today’s class of billionaire space explorers have envisioned. 

Depictions that once drew ridicule or indifference because they seemed absurd are becoming a reality, with ideas from Isaac Asimov and Gerard K. O’Neill shaping the future, and present, of space flight and exploration.

In the past decade alone, there has been an unprecedented wave of new space activity.

The interstellar Cold War

In the modern era, contests between world powers have often played out in the final frontier — outer space. And with these moves from the planet’s most powerful governments, there are certainly echoes of the past Cold War contests between the Soviet Union and the United States. But how does the advent of private ventures change the game — and will they determine who will control space?

While the United States has become by far the dominant force in space, there’s actually a long history of international space laws and treaties that began over 100 years ago. As early as 1919, nations agreed that a country’s airspace was merely the area directly above its territory. When the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik satellite in 1957, it violated this agreement. But President Dwight Eisenhower — knowing that the United States was interested in placing spy satellites above the Soviet Union — didn’t raise any concerns.

A decade later — around the same time the United States was setting its eyes on the moon — the United Nations agreed to an “Outer Space Treaty.” Signed in 1967, the agreement opens “the moon and other celestial bodies” to the benefit of all nations — and defines them as “the province of all mankind.” 

Likewise, the treaty says that celestial bodies can only be used for peaceful purposes — meaning that no weapons of mass destruction are allowed in outer space. 

Governments are also responsible for managing their national activities in space, whether carried out by official entities or private companies. And according to the agreement, each nation continues to have jurisdiction over all their objects and citizens in space. As of right now, 111 countries, including all of the spacefaring powers, have signed the agreement.

But as we’ve already seen, numerous world powers are actively pushing the limits of this treaty, with Russia’s anti-satellite missile and China’s globe-circling warhead standing as two clear examples.

However, China’s recent test isn’t the only problem on the horizon. The main rival of the U.S. is also seeking to make a stake on the moon, while also investing heavily in space weapons.

China has landed four spacecraft on the moon, with one rover actively exploring the surface over the past two years. 

In a June 2020 article, a U.S. intelligence officer wrote that although current missions are peaceful, China views space as “a military domain” and seeks “to secure both economic and military advantages.”

She added that China has developed anti-satellite and electronic warfare capabilities that can be activated from earth or space. In 2018, the Chinese military launched units that would train soldiers in directing anti-satellite missiles.

Recognizing this threat, President Trump established the United States Space Force in February 2019 as a sixth branch of the American military. He noted the reality of America’s adversaries advancing their space capabilities and “actively developing ways” to deny America’s use of space “in a crisis or conflict.”   

In July 2021 the Defense Department’s first head of space operations took a trip to Europe in an attempt to encourage allies like Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands to develop their own space military units, along the lines of France, Britain, and Germany.

He explicitly said China and Russia’s recent actions are “designed to deny our access to space.” 

The current White House, however, doesn’t seem to take the current space race — or threat — very seriously. When White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked whether Biden planned to keep the Space Force intact, for example, her sarcastic response indicated that she didn’t even know who ran the organization.

China aims for the moon

But while parts of the government might be asleep at the wheel, China is aiming for the moon — like the United States once did six decades ago. 

In December 2020, the Chang’e-5 landed on earth after collecting 4.4 pounds of lunar rocks — continuing research started by the Soviet Union in the 1970s. 

And now, China is developing new launch vehicles and a new spacecraft that can send astronauts to the moon, with the intent to set foot on the lunar surface in less than ten years. 

Again echoing the Cold War era, Russia and China are teaming up to complete several joint missions — including a robotic voyage to an asteroid in 2024

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