Biden Gears up for Midterm Elections as Democrats Fear Doom

After months of the White House dismissing midterm election questions, President Joe Biden is shifting his focus toward November, when the Democrats’ congressional majorities will be on the ballot.

Biden’s first in-person presidential Democratic National Committee fundraiser Monday night marks a turning point for Democrats amid criticism of Biden’s lack of donor events and a cohesive partywide fall message.

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The 2022 outlook for Democrats is “gloomy” given the “powerful” forces conspiring against them in November, according to political commentator Costas Panagopoulos.

“Throw in lackluster approval ratings for Biden, soaring inflation and gas prices, and mixed signals overall in the economy,” he told the Washington Examiner.

But the fall is not a Republican fait accompli, Panagopoulos advised, as the Russia-Ukraine war upends the U.S. political milieu.

“There are bright signs for the president and for the party in November, including recent victories in redistricting battles that may help in some House races, problematic GOP candidacies for the Senate and, depending on how things play out, a crisis in Ukraine that may cause many Americans to rally around the flag and Biden and boost his ratings, thereby helping in the midterms,” he said.

Democrats will likely contest the elections having notched only one big partisan win during Biden’s first two years in office: the $2 trillion American Rescue Plan. The party touted the legislation’s anniversary last week, which preceded the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal. Members argue that the measures have increased gross domestic product and job creation, with polling indicating that the economy is the public’s top concern.

“The American economy was flat on its back. It was the Democrats — it was you that brought us back,” Biden said last week at the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference in Philadelphia.

The House Democratic conference, aside from potentially being a COVID-19 superspreader event, was intended to demonstrate Democratic unity. But the caucus left the battleground state divided on its agenda for the rest of the year.

Several Democrats have urged the White House to ditch “Build Back Better,” the slogan for Biden’s controversial $2 trillion social welfare and climate proposal that has come to epitomize disunity. Instead, the president formalized the new “Building Back a Better America” marketing during his State of the Union address.

Passing a Building Back a Better America-esque bill quickly will be complicated, though West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a centrist Democrat, at least appears open to talks again. There are other accomplishments Democrats can achieve, including innovation and China competition legislation and confirming the first black female Supreme Court justice, Ketanji Brown Jackson. But more liberal Democrats want Biden to roll out unilateral action on criminal justice reform, immigration, student loan forgiveness, and voting rights.

“We still continue to consider what steps we can take through executive action even as we work with Congress to see what we can move through there as well,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday.

Democratic messaging is “all over the board,” leaning into the disarray stereotype “well into the policy arena,” Panagopoulos said.

“Not all hope is lost, but Democrats need to get on the same page nationally and to promote a message that resonates with voters,” he added. “Voters need more than just to vote against Republicans — they need reasons to support Democrats.”

The Democratic messaging coincides with dissent on Capitol Hill regarding Biden’s cautious Russia-Ukraine war response. Calling for sanctions and more generous aid, lawmaker negotiations pressured Biden to introduce a Russian energy ban. The president had been hesitant to implement the framework because of 40-year-high inflation and record gas prices. Now, there is a growing chorus backing the dispatch of fighter jets to Ukraine. The United States rebuffed an offer from Poland last week to send MiG-29 aircraft to the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany so the Soviet-era planes could be deployed to the conflict zone.

Meanwhile, Republicans have seized on any weaknesses in Democratic messaging, particularly Senate operatives hopeful they will retake the evenly divided chamber’s majority.

“Democrats have settled on their midterm message: Americans are stupid,” T.W. Arrighi, a National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman, said. “Democrats can’t understand why American voters have a rudimentary understanding of basic economics, which they clearly don’t seem to possess.”

Biden’s Monday night DNC fundraiser comes after he told the organization’s winter meeting last week, another in-person first since the start of the pandemic, that the party could make inroads in 2022 if it drums up 2020-level enthusiasm without former President Donald Trump as a political foil.

“If we do that, we’re going to keep the House and keep the Senate — and add seats,” he said.

Biden’s prediction bucks history and polls. Democrats experienced surprise defeats in Virginia and narrow victories in New Jersey in 2021’s off-year elections, perpetuating a trend set by former President Bill Clinton’s 50-plus House seat loss in 1994 and former President Barack Obama’s 60-odd trouncing in 2010.

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Although Republicans can botch their inbuilt advantage, the GOP has an average 3 percentage point edge over Democrats in a generic congressional ballot, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden also has an average net negative 9 point approval rating, and more than three-fifths of respondents tell pollsters they believe he is leading the country in the wrong direction.