Historically Chaotic Situation Poised to Get Much Worse

The situation at the southern border, already a humanitarian and national security crisis, threatens to become far worse in the weeks ahead.

The number of migrants stopped attempting to enter the country illegally from Mexico in March was the highest in a generation. Yet rates of illegal immigration are expected only to rise as President Joe Biden prepares to end the pandemic policy known as Title 42, which requires all migrants crossing the border without authorization to be turned away.

By announcing an end to the policy, the White House pleased immigrant advocates and allies, who criticized Title 42 because it prevents migrants from making asylum claims. Behind closed doors, the Biden administration is concerned that walking back the measure could prompt a “mass migration event.”

The Department of Homeland Security is planning for a worst-case scenario of 18,000 people a day being apprehended at the border in the six weeks following the May 23 end date for Title 42.

In comparison, between 5,000 and 7,000 noncitizens have been encountered at the border daily over the past year. And the Obama administration said 1,000 apprehensions a day would constitute a crisis.

If the DHS projections bore out, 756,000 migrants would be apprehended just in the six-week time frame, roughly equivalent to the population of Seattle.

Even some Democrats are abandoning the administration and warning that the situation could become catastrophic by summer. They’re joining Republicans, who have long opposed ending Title 42, warning that without a mechanism to expel people immediately, more will come and U.S. border agents will be overwhelmed and lose control of the border to migrants and cartels.

BORDER CITY WARNS BIDEN: ‘NO AMOUNT OF PREPARATION’ WILL LIMIT TITLE 42 DISASTER

Over the past two years, the United States has expelled 1.7 million people through the authority, though some were turned away more than once.

Border authorities have encountered more than 150,000 people trying to enter the U.S. from Mexico without authorization each month over the past year, a significant increase from the fewer than 50,000 encounters seen in an average month over the past decade. Biden initially downplayed the uptick in illegal immigration last spring as “seasonal,” but the numbers continued to climb through the summer.

The March figure of 221,303 is the highest in 22 years, and the only other known months in which the 98-year-old Border Patrol apprehended more migrants were February and March of 2000, during a historic wave of illegal migration from Mexico.

More than 2 million migrants were stopped while attempting to enter the U.S. from Mexico illegally in calendar year 2021, an astronomical figure. Of the 2 million, roughly 1.1 million were immediately expelled back to Mexico or flown to other countries. Some attempted crossing multiple times, inflating the numbers. But nearly 800,000 were released into the U.S.

In the first quarter of 2022, more than 542,000 people were encountered at the southern border, putting the U.S. on track to surpass 2.1 million by year’s end — but only if the numbers don’t increase, which is unlikely.

“While we may likely see an increase in encounters after the CDC’s Title 42 Public Health Order is terminated on May 23rd, CBP continues to execute this Administration’s comprehensive strategy to safely, orderly, and humanely manage our borders,” Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Chris Magnus said in a statement Monday evening.

In recent months, migrants have been showing up at the southern border from Central American and, increasingly, from countries all over the world. Removing migrants from far-flung places is even more difficult, leading the Biden administration to release them into the U.S.

CBP and DHS have maintained that they are being proactive and have not indicated any plans to delay the May 23 termination date.

“CBP is surging personnel and resources to the border, increasing processing capacity, securing more ground and air transportation, and increasing medical supplies, food, water, and other resources to ensure a humane environment for those being processed,” CBP said in a statement Monday.

DHS intelligence indicated that 25,000 migrants are waiting just south of the U.S.-Mexico border to come across on May 23.

Enrique Lucero, the top migration official in the northern Mexico city of Tijuana, told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday that 4,000 people are waiting in his city for Title 42 to end.

“Approximately, in Tijuana, there are more than 4,000 people who are in different shelters waiting for Title 42 to disappear,” said Lucero, municipal director of attention to migrants in Tijuana, Baja California.

To date, just one caravan of migrants in southern Mexico has embarked for the U.S., but its status is unknown.

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Last spring, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas rolled out a four-pronged plan to stem the flow of migrants illegally entering the country. The plan included addressing the root causes that lead people to leave their home countries, rebuilding the asylum process, improving border security management, and taking down smugglers. To date, the Biden administration has not made substantive progress in any of the four areas.