Expert Looks Into ‘Crystal Ball’ for 2022 November Election Developments

The 2022 November general election is fast approaching, and the question on everyone’s mind is, “What’s going to happen?” Will Democrats dominate, or will Republicans see a red wave?

At the state level, Mandy Zoch, Project Manager for the National Conference of State Legislatures, looked into the proverbial “crystal ball” and found five key trends framing state elections.

She also examined every legislative chamber, found the ones that are competitive, and explained why these chambers could change control after November.

Key Trends

According to Zoch, the first key trend to watch is the “Rural vs. Urban” vote. She said this issue has been “long simmering” but was exacerbated by redistricting.

Before 2016, “fly-over country” was written off as irrelevant by many candidates, but the election of President Donald Trump showed rural voters still have clout and can tip an election. If rural voters show up again in 2022, that could impact which way the election swings in any given state.

According to Zoch, the second key trend to watch is the “Red Wave” question. Zoch said recent polling suggests GOP voters are more energized, but there’s a question on if that will hold until November.

Former President Donald Trump (L) and President Joe Biden in file photographs. (Getty Images)

The third key trend to watch is the retiring of over 30 legislative leaders, which Zoch labeled “New Faces.” Traditionally, incumbents have the advantage, but with so many people retiring, there’s a question over who will fill the power vacuum: a Democrat or a Republican?

The fourth key trend is “Issue Overload.” Zoch specified, “Ukraine, abortion, COVID, inflation, racial justice, economic concerns…” The sheer volume of significant issues and often the protests accompanying them have resulted in voters experiencing a sense of inability to keep up. So the question becomes, which

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