U.S. Promises “Stream” of HIMARS Ammo to Ukraine

BIGGEST ARMS PACKAGE YET: The 18th package of arms for Ukraine — the largest single shipment to date — brings the total dollar value of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine to close to $10 billion.

The latest $1 billion package includes an undisclosed number of “GMLRS,” precision-guided missiles with a 40-mile range that are fired from HIMARS mobile launchers, along with 75,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition; 20 120 mm mortar systems with 20,000 rounds of ammunition; 1,000 more Javelin anti-armor missiles; and significantly, anti-radar missiles that can be fired from Ukrainian fighter jets and are capable on homing in on Russian anti-aircraft radars, blinding air defense systems.

The Pentagon is promising a “steady stream” of the GPS-guided GMLRS missiles but no more HIMARS launchers. Ukraine has 16 U.S. systems and three compatible mobile launchers from the U.K. Germany has promised three more but has yet to deliver.

“Our assessment actually is that the Ukrainians are doing pretty well in terms of the numbers of systems, and really the priority right now is making sure that they have a steady stream of these GMLRS,” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, at a Pentagon briefing yesterday.

“Right now, the fight is in the east and increasingly in the south. We need to get them capabilities that deliver on a time frame that’s relevant to that,” Kahl said, noting that Ukraine hopes to liberate the southern city of Kherson in the coming months. “These are all critical capabilities to help the Ukrainians repel the Russian offensive in the east, and also to address evolving developments in the south and elsewhere.”

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION APPROVES $1 BILLION MILITARY AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE

RUSSIA ‘RUNNING LOW’ ON PGMs: The Pentagon, like Ukraine, is refusing to disclose the level of casualties suffered on the Ukrainian side, but Kahl had no such reservations discussing Russian losses in the first five and a half months of the war.

“There’s a lot of fog in war, but, you know, I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70,000 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months,” said Kahl. “That is a combination of killed in action and wounded in action, and that number might be a little lower, a little higher, but I think that’s kind of in the ballpark.”

Kahl said the U.S. also estimates the Russians have probably between 3,000 and 4,000 armored vehicles, which he said “is a lot.” And Russia’s stocks of precision-guided missiles are also “running low.”

“Think air-launched cruise missiles, sea-launched cruise missiles, things like that,” Kahl said, “Those have been substantially consumed, attritted.” But Kahl could not say exactly how much they have left, or may be holding in reserve.

“Both sides are taking casualties, the war is the most intense conventional conflict in Europe since the Second World War,” Kahl conceded. “But the Ukrainians have a lot of advantages, not the least of which is their will to fight.”

PENTAGON PROJECTS RUSSIAN CASUALTY COUNT IN UKRAINE TO BE NEAR 70,000-80,000

ZELENSKY: MAKE RUSSIANS STAY IN RUSSIA: In an interview with the Washington Post, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for a total travel ban on Russian citizens as a way to ratchet up the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The most important sanctions are to close the borders because the Russians are taking away someone else’s land,” Zelensky told the Post. Russians, he said, should “live in their own world until they change their philosophy.”

Russian airlines are already barred from flying over most of Europe and North America, but Zelensky argues the only way to get Putin to change course is to make average Russians feel the consequences of the war.

“They’ll understand then,” Zelensky said. “They’ll say, ‘This [war] has nothing to do with us. The whole population can’t be held responsible, can it?’ It can. The population picked this government and they’re not fighting it, not arguing with it, not shouting at it.”

UN CHIEF: RUSSIAN NUCLEAR STRIKE IN UKRAINE WAR WOULD ‘PROBABLY’ KILL US ALL

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues atDailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter:@dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden signs two national security related bills into law today, beginning at 10 a.m. with the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. The law is designed to strengthen American manufacturing, supply chains, and national security by investing in research and development of future technology, including nanotechnology, clean energy, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence.

Then at 2 p.m., in the White House East Room, Biden signs the instruments of ratification for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. All 30 NATO member nations must ratify the expansion of the alliance and there are still seven countries to go, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, and Turkey.

‘LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THIS IS HISTORY’: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley were on hand in Stuttgart, Germany, this morning for the change-of-command ceremony in which Marine Gen.  Michael Langley took over as U.S. Africa commander from retiring Army Gen. Stephen Townsend.

“In the Marine Corps, you have made your family proud every day, but I don’t believe that they have ever been prouder than they were a few days ago when you became the first African American four-star general in the history of the United States Marine Corps,” said Austin. “Ladies and gentlemen, this is history.”

“Gen. Langley, as you stand here today, young Marines around the world are watching, and your extraordinary achievement reminds them that they belong, and it reminds them that the United States military is deeply committed to making progress and to breaking down barriers, and to opening its arms wide to all qualified Americans who hear the call to serve their country.”

The ceremony took place at 4 a.m. eastern time and will be replayed on the Pentagon’s website at 10 a.m.

OPINION: CRITICAL RACE THEORY IS A THREAT TO OUR NATIONAL SECURITY

BLINKEN IN CONGO: Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to the Democratic Republic of the Congo today on the second leg of his Africa trip. In Kinshasa, he’ll meet with President Felix Tshisekedi and Foreign Minister Christophe Lutundula, and he has a joint press conference with Lutundula scheduled for 11 a.m. Washington time.

In a speech in South Africa yesterday, Blinken outlined the Biden administration’s Sub-Saharan Africa strategy, which he said was aimed at “working with African partners to fulfill the promise of democracy.”

“The overwhelming majority of people across Africa prefer democracy to any other form of government. Even greater majorities oppose the authoritarian alternatives to democracy,” Blinken said. “So here’s what we’ll do differently. We won’t treat democracy as an area where Africa has problems, and the United States has solutions. We recognize that our democracies face common challenges, which we need to tackle together, as equals, alongside other governments, civil society, and citizens.”

Blinken wraps up his trip in Rwanda tomorrow.

SOUTH AFRICA WARNS BLINKEN OVER US POLICIES AIMED AT BOXING OUT RUSSIA AND CHINA

MILLEY’S LETTER NEVER SENT: The latest bombshell revelations about former President Donald Trump’s contentious relations with Pentagon brass come in a new book, The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021, to be published next month.

An excerpt from the book by journalists and married couple Susan Glasser and Peter Baker appears in the current edition of the New Yorker, and includes a June 2020 resignation letter composed by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, when he came to believe that Trump was a threat to the bedrock principle of an apolitical U.S. military.

“The events of the last couple weeks have caused me to do deep soul-searching, and I can no longer faithfully support and execute your orders as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,” Milley wrote in the letter he never sent, which he drafted in the weeks after Trump tricked him into accompanying him to Lafayette Square across from the White House where demonstrators were cleared from the park.

“It is my belief that you were doing great and irreparable harm to my country. I believe that you have made a concerted effort over time to politicize the United States military. I thought that I could change that. I’ve come to the realization that I cannot, and I need to step aside and let someone else try to do that,” Milley writes.

“He was agonized, according to our reporting, about whether or not to resign,” Glasser told CNN. “He consulted with many who said, listen, we don’t have a tradition of resignation in protest for our uniformed military and that it would actually be more important to remain in office.”

“There’s no handbook, there is no guide in the Constitution for what to do when the president himself is a national security threat,” said Glasser.

TRUMP: ‘WHY CAN’T YOU BE LIKE THE GERMAN GENERALS?’ “The president of the United States was unhappy because he felt that his generals, as he called them, the American generals, were not as loyal as he perceived the Nazi generals under Hitler to be. He thought that was the better model for a general,” said Glasser, referring to a part of the book where Trump purportedly clashes with his chief of staff, retired Gen. John Kelly.

“You f’ing generals, why can’t you be like the German generals?” Trump allegedly says to Kelly, who responds, “Which generals?”

“The German generals in World War II,” says Trump.

“John Kelly … schooled Trump and tried to say, well, wait a minute, Mr. President, they weren’t completely subservient and, actually, they tried to kill Hitler three times,” said Glasser. “And Trump interrupted him in this discussion and said, no, no, no, no, that’s not right, they were completely loyal.”

TRUMP WANTED MILITARY TO BE LIKE ‘GERMAN GENERALS’ WHO WERE ‘TOTALLY LOYAL’: REPORT

‘IT’S WHAT DICTATORS DO’: Another culture clash with the military came over Trump’s desire to stage a Fourth of July parade down Pennsylvania Avenue to rival the Bastille Day parade he witnessed in France as a guest of French President Emmanuel Macron.

The subject came up in an Oval Office meeting in 2017 in which Kelly joked that Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. Paul Selva was in charge of the parade preparations. Trump turned to Selva, who was present for the meeting.

“So, what do you think of the parade?” Trump asked Selva, according to the book

“I didn’t grow up in the United States, I actually grew up in Portugal,” Selva said. “Portugal was a dictatorship — and parades were about showing the people who had the guns. And in this country, we don’t do that.” He added, “It’s not who we are.”

Even after this impassioned speech, Trump still did not get it. “So, you don’t like the idea?” he said, incredulous. “No,” Selva said. “It’s what dictators do.”

‘IT DOESN’T LOOK GOOD FOR ME’: Trump reportedly wanted one change from the parade he saw in Paris, which included injured veterans, including wheelchair-bound soldiers who had lost limbs in battle.

“Look, I don’t want any wounded guys in the parade,” Trump reportedly told Kelly. “This doesn’t look good for me.”

“Those are the heroes,” Kelly is said to have replied. “In our society, there’s only one group of people who are more heroic than they are — and they are buried over in Arlington.”

“Kelly did not mention that his own son Robert, a lieutenant killed in action in Afghanistan, was among the dead interred there,” Glasser and Baker write.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Pentagon projects Russian casualty count in Ukraine to be near 70,000-80,000

Washington Examiner: Biden administration approves $1 billion military aid package to Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Amnesty International stands by report that Ukraine is putting civilians at risk

Washington Examiner: War in Ukraine to enter ‘new phase,’ UK defense ministry says

Washington Examiner: UN chief: Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine war would ‘probably’ kill us all

Washington Examiner: Beijing seeking ‘new normal’ with continued military exercises around Taiwan

Washington Examiner: Chinese envoy insists Taiwan ‘must be re-educated’ after subjugation

Washington Examiner: China has overtaken terrorism as biggest challenge facing US, top spy says

Washington Examiner: Bill Barr says ‘evidence is building’ as DOJ digs ‘deeper and deeper’ into Trump Jan. 6 case

Washington Examiner: Photos show documents Trump purportedly flushed down toilet: Report

Washington Examiner: Trump wanted military to be like ‘German generals’ who were ‘totally loyal’: Report

Washington Examiner: ‘Doesn’t look good for me’: Trump sought to exclude wounded veterans from parade

Washington Examiner: Russia announces temporary withdrawal from New START treaty

Washington Examiner: WATCH: Russia launches Iranian satellite into space

Washington Examiner: Petraeus: Afghanistan likely will be ‘incubator for Islamist extremism’ for years

Washington Examiner: South Africa warns Blinken over US policies aimed at boxing out Russia and China

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Critical race theory is a threat to our national security

Washington Post: Top Pakistani Taliban leader killed in Afghanistan; Shiites targeted in Kabul

AP: UN chief urges nuke powers to abide by no-first-use pledge

Air Force Magazine: Time Is Already Running Short for Congress to Pass 2023 NDAA, Spending Bills

Air Force Magazine: Ukraine Could Get Western Fighters, Pentagon Official Says—‘Down the Road’

New York Times: ‘We Have Reached A Situation Of Parity’ In The East, Ukraine Says

Defense News: U.S. Navy Injects First-Of-Kind Unmanned Experiments Into Multinational Exercise

USNI News: U.S. Will Continue Taiwan Strait Transits, FONOPs in Western Pacific Despite Growing Tension with China

Agence France Presse: Taiwan Holds Artillery Drill Simulating Defence Against China Attack

Wall Street Journal: China’s Military Exercises Showcase Modern Fighting Force Preparing For Possible War In The Taiwan Strait

CNN: U.S. Navy Recovers Jet Blown Off Aircraft Carrier From Bottom Of Ocean

Air Force Magazine: DOD Revises COVID-19 Guidelines for Travel, Masks, and More

19fortyfive.com: Russia Just Made a Threat to Destroy Europe’s Largest Nuclear Power Plant: Report

19fortyfive.com: The Dragon Has Peaked: China’s Population Will Drop By Half in 2100

19fortyfive.com: Ford-Class USS Enterprise Could Be U.S. Navy’s Best Aircraft Carrier Ever

19fortyfive.com: We Think We Know Why the Air Force Wants the F-15EX Fighter

The Cipher Brief: How Far Will China’s Aggression Go?

Calendar

TUESDAY | AUGUST 9

8 a.m. South Wacker Drive, Chicago, Illinois — Atlantic Council Veterans Advanced Energy Summit with Richard Kidd, deputy assistant Defense secretary for environment and energy; Robert Rudich, energy attache at the Warsaw Embassy; Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, (D-IL).; and David Livingston https://youtu.be/4GMYhRPK4ho

9:30 a.m. Huntsville, Alabama — Space and Missile Defense Symposium with Lt. Gen. Dan Karbler, commander, U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command; Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. States Space Command; and others. Full agenda for the three-day event at: https://smdsymposium.org/agenda/

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “New Nuclear Troubles in Southern Asia?” with Rabia Akhtar, director of the University of Lahore’s Center for Security, Strategy and Policy Research; Rakesh Sood, fellow at the Observer Research Foundation; Ashley Tellis, CEIP chair for strategic affairs; and Tong Zhao, CEIP Nuclear Policy Program senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/09/new-nuclear-troubles

10:45 a.m. 1301 K Street N.W. — The Washington Post unveils a #BringAustinHome banner on the exterior of the Washington Post headquarters to mark the 10th anniversary of journalist Austin Tice’s abduction and detention in Syria.

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” book discussion on Degrade and Destroy: The Inside Story of the War Against the Islamic State, from Barack Obama to Donald Trump,” with author Michael Gordon, national security correspondent at the Wall Street Journal; and Seth Jones, senior vice president, chair and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report

1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Empowering the Next Generation of DOD Modernization,” with Acting Deputy Defense Department CIO for the Information Enterprise Lily Zeleke; Greg Clifton, general manager of Intel’s Defense and National Security Group; and Bryan Thomas, executive vice president of public sector sales at World Wide Technology https://www.govexec.com/feature/Empowering-the-Next-Generation

5 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), chairman, House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Washington Post Live anchor Leigh Ann Caldwell, on Meeks Asia trip with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi which included a stop in Taiwan. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live