Energy Transition a ‘Dangerous Delusion’: Report

Nathan WorcesterSeptember 8, 2022

An Aug. 30 report argues that the idea of totally transitioning from fossil fuels is a “dangerous delusion.”

“The lessons of the recent decade make it clear that [solar, wind, and battery] SWB technologies cannot be surged in times of need, are neither inherently ‘clean’ nor even independent of hydrocarbons, and are not cheap,” it states.

Authored by Mark Mills of the conservative Manhattan Institute, the report comes as the Russia-Ukraine war wreaks havoc on global energy markets, particularly in Europe.

In a Sept. 7 speech, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen vowed to try to “flatten the curve” of electricity use during peak hours through rationing.

Faced with rising energy prices, some politicians are rethinking their stances on fossil fuels.

Newly elected British Prime Minister Liz Truss will end her country’s fracking moratorium on Sept. 8, as reported by The Telegraph.

While noting that electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines have all significantly improved in recent years, Mills highlighted barriers that impede a complete departure from hydrocarbons.

Raw materials pose one fundamental challenge. Citing a May 2021 analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mills argued that any sweeping energy transition would require a massive increase in supplies of various minerals.

The supply of lithium, for example, would need to rise 4,200 percent.

IEA projections cited in the report suggest that rising commodity prices could drive up the prices of batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels. Electric vehicle prices are already increasing thanks to the increasing costs of raw materials.

Solar panels, part of an electricity generation plant, in Kern County near Mojave, Calif. on June 18, 2021. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images) ‘Very Interesting Winter’

Stephen Haner, a senior fellow with the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy in Virginia, agrees with Mills’ analysis.