2022 Primaries: Despite 40-Year High in Unseated House Reps, Incumbents Still Ride 95-Percent Reelection Rate

John HaugheySeptember 15, 2022

Fifteen Congressional incumbents lost preliminary contests during the recently-completed 2022 midterm primary cycle, nearly double those denied renominations in 2020 primaries and the highest number of sitting reps ousted by party rivals since the 1980s.

The 15 defeated incumbents—nine Republicans, six Democrats—top the 14 sitting House reps unseated in 1992 primaries that presaged 1994’s midterm conservative capture of the House under Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and the 13 booted from office in 2012’s primaries when Tea Party activists rattled the GOP.

But the fact that more incumbents lost preliminary nomination races in 2022 than, perhaps, in 40 years, is not evidence of an emerging anti-incumbent trend but confirmation that sitting Congressional reps and Senators rarely lose reelection bids.

U.S. House and Senate incumbents have a 90-percent plus reelection rate, including 94.72 percent in this year’s primaries, according to analyses by OpenSecrets.org.

House incumbents were reelected at a 94.7 percent clip in 2020, 91 percent in 2018, 96.7 percent in 2016, 95.4 in 2014, 89.8 in 2012, and 85.4 percent in 2010, OpenSecrets.org reports with 1970’s 85 percent being the chamber’s lowest incumbent reelection rate in the last 50 or so years.

Senate incumbents were reelected at an 83.9 rate in 2020, 84.4 percent clip in 2018, and 93.1 percent in 2016 with the chamber’s lowest reelection rate in recent history of 55 percent occurring in 1980 when Republicans flipped 12 seats to gain control of the Senate for the first time since 1955, documents OpenSecrets.org.

All 435 U.S. House seats and 34 U.S. Senate seats—20 held by Republicans, 14 by Democrats—are on the Nov. 8 ballot. Democrats have a 221-212 advantage in the House with Republicans favored to flip at least five seats to gain control of the chamber. The Senate is split and both parties believe they can win a