The Post-Soviet Order is at Its End

The Kremlin has struggled to contain the fallout of its invasion of Ukraine. It did not imagine that its war would inspire sustained unity among Western countries, nor that the Ukrainian army would resist so well, nor that it would need to partly mobilize the Russian population, a drastic measure with potentially disastrous domestic consequences. A war intended to restore Russian strength has instead left the country weaker.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Ukraine as part of Russia’s rightful sphere of influence, but because of his invasion, that sphere of influence is contracting. Russia is losing ground in regions where it has long held sway. Nowhere is this more apparent than among the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Indeed, the broad region to Russia’s south seems to be undergoing a tectonic shift away from Moscow for many interconnected reasons.

Overstretched, Russia no longer seems able to serve as a guarantor of regional security for local regimes. The war and its blatant violation of international norms shocked governments and some segments of publics in the region, rocking their faith in Russia. And the invasion has raised questions about the abiding colonial legacy of Russian power and the need for the countries to its south to shed that imperial baggage. Russia’s debacle in Ukraine has quickened the waning of its primacy in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and several powers—primarily China and Turkey—stand to benefit. Russia will remain an active and significant player in the region, but it will be in a role much diminished by its war against Ukraine.

ON THE BACK FOOT IN THE CAUCASUS

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia remained a powerful, often guiding presence in the politics of many countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. For years, Russia helped keep some conflicts in the region “frozen,” playing the role of a not quite impartial peace broker. Chief among these wars is the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia’s role came into question even before the war against Ukraine, when this frozen conflict flared to life in 2020. In a swift campaign, the revanchist Azerbaijani regime of President Ilham Aliyev wrested control of many parts of Karabakh and some adjacent territories. Defeated, Yerevan was also forced to accept a land corridor across Armenia that connects Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan.

In the wake of these events, Armenians did not hide their displeasure and disappointment at Russia’s lack of support. Russian officials contended that their hands were tied; the security guarantees of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the regional security partnership led by Moscow, covered only Armenia’s officially recognized borders, not the contested territory of Karabakh. But Russia lost influence over, and the faith of, its Armenian client by playing a double game: it had become one of the main providers of military equipment to Azerbaijan and also allowed Turkey—Armenia’s historic enemy and Azerbaijan’s main ally—a seat at the table in regional negotiations about the conflict.

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