PA Senate Race Tightens With Candidates Polling Within Margin of Error
Democrat Senate candidate John Fetterman only leads Republican candidate Mehmet Oz by two points in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, a four point shift since June, according to an AARP poll.
Forty-eight percent of likely voters support Fetterman, while 46 percent support Oz. Two percent said they would not vote for either Oz or Fetterman.
The pollster sampled 1,400 likely voters over landlines, cell phones, and SMS-to-web from October 4-12 with a 4.4 margin of error.
Fetterman’s lead has shrunk from June, when the AARP survey found the Democrat was leading by six. The election is in 21 days.
“The good news for Fetterman is he’s still ahead,” pollster John Anzalone told Politico. “But I would also say that it’s not only good to be ahead, it’s good to be ahead with an opponent who still has a net-unfavorable in terms of how people perceive him. And that goes a long way in the last three weeks.”
Tony Fabrizio, a second pollster for AARP, said the poll favors Oz when the generic ballot is taken into consideration. He said:
When you look at the undecideds in the Senate race, they want to vote Republican in the generic ballot. They are net positive towards Trump’s job approval, and they are net negative towards Biden’s job approval. They’re more interested in economic issues than they are in social issues. So those things hold some glimmer of hope for, obviously, Oz.
Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by two points (47-45 percent). In June, Republicans lead by the same percentage (47-45 percent).
Forty-seven percent approved of Trump, while 51 percent disapproved.
Only 43 percent of respondents approved of President Joe Biden. Fifty-five percent disapproved. In June, 36 percent approved of Biden, and 61 percent disapproved. Oz’s polling has notably improved despite Biden’s approval rating, a bellwether for midterm races.
Oz has been outspent by Fetterman by $5 million, according to third quarter fundraising totals.
Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.
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