Here’s Where the Polls Stand in Key Senate Races With Only One Week Until Midterms

With one week to go before Election Day, several Senate races are polling at near ties.

Republicans need a net gain of just one Senate seat to win the majority in the upper chamber, and the polling averages are showing a number of tight races. All are within margins of error, and in the end, election night could be anyone’s game.

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Arizona

According to the RealClearPolitics average, Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly has 2.4% more of the vote than Republican Blake Masters in Arizona. Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight puts Kelly 3.3 points ahead of Masters. The top Republican super PAC has not boosted Masters in the last weeks before the election, but other outside groups, including the Saving Arizona PAC backed by investor Peter Thiel, are ramping up spending. Kelly has a vast multimillion-dollar war chest that Masters hasn’t come close to rivaling.

Georgia

Georgia‘s Senate race is one of two consensus toss-up races for which the major polling aggregates agree that it favors neither Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock nor Republican Herschel Walker. The former football star is up by 1.4 points, according to RealClearPolitics, while FiveThirtyEight puts Warnock ahead by 1.3 points. Despite being plagued by a series of scandals, including two former girlfriends alleging that he paid for their abortions despite his anti-abortion platform, Walker has continued to climb in the polls.

Ohio

Ohio Republican J.D. Vance is pulling 2% more of the average vote than Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight analyses. This seat appears to be leaning toward a Vance victory, which would keep the seat in GOP hands as it opened when Sen. Rob Portman (R) announced he would not run for reelection. Vance, along with Masters, was financed by venture capitalist Peter Thiel in his primary and has stayed slightly ahead of Ryan in the close polling throughout the general election.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is polling about 1.5 points ahead of Dr. Mehmet Oz in the RealClearPolitics average and 1.4 points ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s. The most recent New York Times-Siena poll had him by 5% of the vote. Fetterman struggled through the only debate last week due to impediments from the stroke he suffered in May but raised a million dollars in the aftermath. He suffers from lingering auditory processing problems but says he is fit to serve in office. He has refused to release his medical records.

Nevada

In the other consensus toss-up, Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt has pushed just 1 point ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by the RealClearPolitics count. FiveThirtyEight puts Cortez Masto 0.4% ahead of Laxalt, the former attorney general of Nevada, and his efforts to oust Cortez Masto through broad outreach, especially to the Hispanic community, could result in the GOP’s most valuable pickup of this cycle.

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New Hampshire

New Hampshire Republican Don Bolduc has halved what was nearly an 8-point gap between him and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) several weeks ago. Hassan is still in the lead with 3.4% more in the polls, according to RealClearPolitics, and 4.1% more, according to FiveThirtyEight. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Bolduc on Monday but noted that his stance on the 2020 election has changed since winning the primary. Trump rebuked Bolduc for toning down his claims that the election was stolen from Trump.

Wisconsin

Incumbent Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is polling ahead of his progressive challenger, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D), by 3.3 points, according to RealClearPolitics, and 3.4 on FiveThirtyEight. Barnes has come under fire for his approach to crime, which his opponents have blasted as too lenient. However, he got a boost from former President Barack Obama, who campaigned with him this weekend.