Five ways the House Speaker Race could play out for McCarthy

Tuesday’s Speaker of the House Election is rapidly approaching. The path for House Minority Leader is also fast approaching. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), to vote enough backing To claim the gavel is still murky.

On the first day, there are five possible scenarios. 118th CongressRepublicans will enjoy a slimmer majority in this area. majority The House. To win the speakership, McCarthy must have the support at least half of the current voting representatives. Since all Democrats are almost certain to vote against him in the future, he can only lose a few Republican votes.

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Five conservatives — former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ) and Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Bob Good (R-VA), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT) — voiced that they would not support McCarthy on the floor and would continue to vote as a bloc in the weeks leading up to the start of the new Congress. The internal conference election resulted in 36 GOP lawmakers voting against McCarthy on Nov. 15. This left McCarthy with a substantial number of critics.

Here are five possibilities for Tuesday’s race.

1. McCarthy wins 

McCarthy’s weeks in negotiating, concessionsMeetings, effort and meeting might pay off if he is able to make his critics happy by negotiating a compromise that doesn’t result in him leaving the race. One of the biggest issues is the reduction in the threshold required to bring the motion for the removal of the chair to the floor. This would mean that fewer representatives from the majority party are required to try to impeach Speaker of the House.

If he succeeds, the congressional business will continue as scheduled.

2. McCarthy loses the first round, but gets votes in the subsequent rounds

McCarthy might be stopped from getting the 218 required votes by his naysayers in the first round. He might be able make them more concessions to win the second round.

If negotiations take several hours or days, this could slow down the start of business. The House hasn’t cast multiple ballots to select a speaker since 1923, and the longest-lasting speaker vote happened in 1855 when the chamber took two months to select who would hold the gavel.

Both pro and anti McCarthy parties of the GOP indicated that they were ready to vote multiple times if necessary. However, it is not clear which side would eventually give in.

3. McCarthy leaves

McCarthy may decide to quit the race without a clear plan of action. This could happen before Tuesday. It would give McCarthy and his party limited time to choose another candidate.

4. Republicans will rally behind another candidate such as Scalise or McHenry.

Conservative critics of McCarthy have asserted that the party will rally around another lawmaker but have largely remained mum about who they will push for if McCarthy ultimately can’t prevail. Many Republicans speculate that House Minority Whip might be the answer. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is a likely candidate due to his strong relationships with the different factions of the conference, with House Financial Services ranking member Patrick McHenry’s (R-NC), House Republican Conference Vice Chairman Mike Johnson’s (R-LA), Republican Study Committee Chairman Jim Banks’s (R-IN), and House Rules Committee Ranking Member Tom Cole’s (R-OK) names also being floated as possible contenders. Others suggested it could be a dark horse contender.

5. McCarthy is supported by the Democrats

Democrats could theoretically vote present or walk off the floor for the vote to bring the threshold down from 218, but multiple senior Democratic sources said that is highly unlikely due to McCarthy’s contentious relationship with members across the aisle following the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

Democrats cast their vote for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), is expected to mark a significant moment in the history of the party. The party will welcome a new generation in leadership. New York Democrat is slated to become either the first or second black leader of a party in either the lower chamber. It is less likely that California Republican members will be assisted by members of other parties due to the size of the vote. Democrats are also trying to portray Republicans in a chaotic and unleaderlike manner. Some Democrats noted that the intraparty tensions on the floor might help them boost their cause for 2024 when they attempt to win back the majority.

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One senior source who is familiar with the process says that the clerk from the previous Congress will be the president of the chamber. Members and members-elect will act as the vice presidents. “a majoritarian body” Since no rules package has been passed, and no speaker was elected to take control, If members wish to take a break and talk about a future, the clerk cannot order a recess. “a member would have to make a motion to adjourn the House to a time set and then that motion could be voted on if someone called for a vote.” If the motion isn’t approved by a majority of the members, they will be kept in session with the clerk continuing to take the speaker’s role.

Republicans will have 222 members, and Democrats 213; this is the reverse of the Democratic majority in Congress 117th.