Recession Clouds New Year; Coal, Gas Lead and 2022 Commodities Rally

SINGAPORE—Coal and natural gas markets ended 2022 with strong gains on Friday after a global energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war stoked prices, and tighter supplies expected in 2023 could fuel more gains.

Industrial metals, iron ore and rubber finished in negative territory, pushed down in 2022 by China’s strict zero-COVID policy and fears of a world recession.

March saw all-time highs for agricultural markets including palm oil and grains. This was due to adverse weather and pandemic supply disruptions. commodities Some of their gains were lost in the second part.

“Despite the recent price declines, commodities will still likely finish the year as the best performing asset class,” Goldman Sachs reported in its 2023 commodity outlook.

“From a fundamental perspective, the set-up for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the super-cycle in October 2020.”

Supply Strain

The war in Ukraine caused Russia to cut supplies to Europe. A major pipeline was also damaged. The crisis led to the global oil markets being tumultuous, with European countries importing record amounts of non-Russian natural gas to supply winter supplies.

An increase in demand for liquefied natural gases (LNG) and tighter supply of piped gas put enormous pressure on the global market. This led to an energy crisis, which saw oil and gas prices reach record highs.

Newcastle coal Futures rose nearly 140 percent in 2022, which was the highest jump since 2008. The global crude oil price soared to $139 per barrel in March, but then it cooled off as central bank rate increases threatened to plunge economies into recession. Oil settled at $85.91 per barrel on Friday, up 10 percent on the year.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract for gas in Europe ended 8% higher than the record highs earlier this year, as Europe built up its gas stocks.

U.S. gas futures jumped by more than 20 percent and Dutch wholesale gas prices rose by almost 8 percent, both up for a third consecutive year.

Gas prices will remain high because Europe will continue to import LNG next winter to replenish its gas stocks.

The dismantling of tight pandemic controls in China, the world’s second-largest LNG importer, could also promote economic recovery and greater LNG consumption next year.

However, a European gas price cap that starts in February could help to control volatility and keep the market under control.

In industrial metals, copper on the London Metal Exchange is on track to fall 13 percent this year and aluminium is down about 15 percent. Both had reached new records in March.

Spot prices of iron ore bound for China, which consumes about two-thirds of global supply, have fallen about 4 percent this year, ending near $118 per tonne.

Citi analysts see strong supply growth and are bearish about nickel and zinc over the next six to twelve months. They are bullish on iron ore, and they are bearish on zinc.

“Iron ore is expected to remain strong in the near term and could follow through in the bull case of a major China credit easing,” They wrote it in a note.

China’s U-turn on COVID policy and its pledge to increase support for the real estate sector helped to support ferrous and non-ferrous metals in December.

Still, optimism has been tempered by the country’s surging COVID-19 infections and risks of global recession in 2023 if central banks, as expected, keep hiking rates.

Nickel, the metals’ top performer, is poised for a 45 per cent rise. This is partly due a shortage in metal that can be delivered against LME contracts and partly because of volatility caused by low volumes of liquidity and liquidity after March’s trading disaster.

Rising Food Prices

On March supply disruptions, benchmark Chicago wheat futures rose to an all-time record high of $13.63-1 1/2 a bushel. The market was already under pressure from COVID-19 restrictions and adverse weather, which meant that there were fewer Ukrainian grain exports. After a tentative renewal by some Ukrainian exports, wheat ended the year with a gain of around 3 percent.

Corn and soybeans hit a decade high, while Malaysia’s benchmark crude palm oil prices climbed to an all-time record. Soybeans and corn both ended the year up around 14 percent, as severe drought in Argentina raised concerns about South America’s crop.

Food-commodity prices will likely remain high in the future. While wheat production is unlikely in the first two-thirds of 2023 to replenish world inventories, edible oil crops in Latin America and Southeast Asia are experiencing adverse weather.

“U.S. winter wheat is facing harsh cold weather and, even if the crop improves, we will have those supplies [only] in the second half of 2023,” A trader based in Singapore at an international trading firm said this.

The rice market, which sat out the rally in grain prices in the first half of the year, got a boost after India, the world’s biggest exporter, decided in September to curb supplies. India’s 5 percent broken parboiled rice is up almost 6 percent in 2022 and Vietnam’s 5 percent broken rice has gained more than 15 percent.

Among precious metals, gold has lost around 1 percent in 2022, down for a second year, silver is up almost 3 percent, platinum has gained 11 percent and palladium is down 5 percent.

Coffee is one of the largest commodities to lose this year due to fears over recession. Robusta fell 24 percent in 2022 and arabica lost more than a quarter of its value, also impacted by expectations of a bumper crop in top grower Brazil.

Tokyo rubber has lost more than 8 percent while raw sugar was up more than 6 percent. ICE cotton has dropped more than 26 percent in 2022 on softening demand.

Florence Tan and Naveen Thakral

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