Are Russia’s Plans for Army Reform Realistic?

Russia announced recently that it would increase its armed forces by 350,000 more soldiers, bringing the total to 1.5 million. Sergei Shoigu, the Defense Minister, stated that this was a justification for Russia’s decision to increase its armed forces by 350,000 soldiers to a total of 1.5 million personnel. “military security of the nation,” As well as the “new subjects” — as he called the Ukrainian territories illegally annexed — and the country’s “critical infrastructure” Could only be secured “if the most crucial components of the armed forces are reinforced.”

Shoigu says that the reform will start in this year and end in 2026. It has three goals: it will restore the former military areas of Moscow and Leningrad (today’s St. Petersburg), create new troop forces in illegally occupied territories in Ukraine, as well as establish 12 mobile units.

Finland gets a new army corps at its border 

Another corps is planned for Karelia, north-east of St. Petersburg. It will include three motorized rifle units as ground forces and two airborne troop divisions.

“The corps in Karelia is a response to NATO’s expansion,” said Israeli military expert David Sharp, who is from Ukraine. Finland is bordered by the Russian Karelia region. NATO membership requested Along with Sweden.

Sharp, Russia’s war against Ukraine The Russian military has proven that they are unable to fulfill their mission of occupying Ukraine. Moscow wants to reorganize its troops and not only beef up its army.

“The reform is meant to to speed up the transition from brigades to divisions, which would give the units more autonomy. The changes are directed more toward long-term goals, rather than to correcting the current situation on the front [in Ukraine],” He stated.

How will you recruit new soldiers?

The most important point of the announced reform — the increase of the army by 350,000 troops — has raised questions among observers. How will these new fighters be recruited

Russia currently has military service for all men between the ages 18 and 27. Every year, 270,000 people are drafted for one year in spring and autumn. This is just a small portion of the total age cohort. Many men have been able. avoid conscription, for example, by studying at a university or bribing authorities.

Now, however, the age of compulsory military service is to be raised from 21 to 30 years of age. “This is part of the reform. Eighteen-year-old recruits are still just ‘children’ and hardly fit for battle. But 27-to-30-year-olds are physically stronger and have already completed their education, and that can benefit the army,” Sharp. Sharp believes that more conscripts may be called to service in the future.

However, the first step will be to increase the upper age limit to 30 in spring. The minimum age requirement for conscription will be increased at a later date. It has not yet been determined. This will increase the number of conscripts by approximately 2 million men.

Are you seeing another mobilization?

Meanwhile, speculation about another troop mobilization has not abated. Recently, the Kremlin confirmed that the September presidential decree ordering another troop mobilization was valid. partial mobilization amid ongoing fighting in Ukraine was still in effect.

“If we look at the course of this war, then this announced reform can only be made possible with an additional mobilization. In order to increase the army to 1.5 million soldiers, hundreds of thousands of men will need to be called up. The number of soldiers is the only trump card Russia has left,” Sharp.

Andriy Rychenko, a former deputy chief of staff for the Ukrainian Navy, believes Russia has little to gain from further mobilization. He believes the army is still too occupied dealing with the new recruits from the first mobilization.

“New recruits will only sit around with nothing to do,” He said that the Kremlin has so far failed to make up its losses with new recruits.

Ryzhenko is not optimistic that the reform will bring about significant changes in the matter. “Russia has suffered very heavy losses since the beginning of the war, and it needs to make up for that. But the new soldiers are not expected at the front until before next winter,” He stated.

How will this new reform be funded?

This planned personnel increase is the second since Russia’s war against Ukraine in February. In August, President Vladimir Putin grew the maximum contingent to 140,000 men. Together with the additional 350,000 troops announced this week, this would amount to almost half a million new soldiers who will have to be equipped with weapons and uniforms — an enormous burden on the state budget.

The following are the highlights Moscow’s oil-and-gas revenues are declining Can the Kremlin afford to increase its defense spending because of international sanctions? “This reform requires many resources, not just money and personnel. It requires equipment and infrastructure for the 350,000 conscripts. In addition, specialists are needed to train new recruits,” Sharp.

He believes that most units newly formed will exist only in name, and will not be eligible for military equipment. “A significant part of the promises made by this reform appear unrealistic,” He added.

According to Ryzhenko, it costs about $80,000 (€73,600) to fully equip a soldier. Given these high costs and the shrinking state earnings, he, too, is doubtful that the announced reform can be implemented. He also pointed out that Russia depends on foreign components for its military equipment.

Ryzhenko is also convinced that such a move would not be popular among the public. “At the end of the day, many Russians are reluctant to go to war,” He stated.

This article was originally published by Russian.

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