Why Won’t Russia and Ukraine Negotiate?

Questions about the ahref=” and its use.https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/01/29/talks-between-russia-and-ukraine-would-save-lives-argues-christopher-chivvis”>international Ukraine should be pushed by the community Russia into ahref=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/11/is-peace-between-russia-and-ukraine-impossible/”>negotiations so far, the structure of negotiations has been unclear. These days, wars of territorial conquest are rare.

It is even less common for nuclear powers to find themselves in situations of conventional vulnerability relative to the victims they’ve determined to invade. But peace conferences are extraordinarily complex affairs, and it’s worth thinking about some of the negotiating models available to us for ending the conflict.

The Paris Peace Accords and the Vietnam War

The Paris Peace Accords are the result of several years’ negotiations between the United States and South Vietnam. They also include the Communist resistance in South Vietnam. Ukraine.

The United States Extricate the patient It can defend itself against Vietnam, while protecting the sovereignty of its client. This isn’t a perfect analogy for the Russia-Ukraine WarHowever, there are echoes. While the US wants war to stop, it wants Ukraine to be sovereign and independent. Russia is determined to limit Ukraine’s sovereignty and annexe Ukrainian territory.

Although talks eventually led to the US withdrawing from the agreement, there were still instances of violence on both sides. A lot of violence was caused by a desire to change the terms of negotiations. However, some of it (the ahref=”https://amzn.to/3JrOQBB”>Christmas Bombing HanoiThe Accords () were part of an attempt to assure the Saigon government it wasn’t being abandoned. However, the Paris Peace Accords were not meant to end Vietnam’s war. They merely restricted the US’s role in that conflict. Three more years of war followed at different levels before North Vietnam conquered South Vietnam and decimated it with a massive mechanized attack.

If the United States intends to create a comfortable and acceptable period between a ceasefire in Ukraine and a defeat, then the Paris Peace Accords will be a great model for negotiations. Russia will not wipe Ukraine off the map. In fact, it is unlikely that Russia would do so. It might be possible to avoid another war, depending on how fast Kyiv agrees to Russian demands. But the main point of the Paris Peace Accords would be to free the West from this situation and allow Ukraine to be part of the Russian sphere. There are certain advantages to this, but they do not exist. This outcome would please some Americans.It runs contrary to US existing policy.

The Collapse of Yugoslavia & the Dayton Accords

Dayton Peace Accords offer a slightly different, but still problematic model.

Richard Holbrooke presided in Dayton (Ohio) over the Dayton Negotiating Sessions in late 1995. These sessions were chosen because of its lackluster nightlife or other attractions. They attempted to end war in Bosnia-Herzegovina through the creation of a new Constitution with carefully crafted ethnic boundaries. Each player desired terrain, but not terrain that was inhabited differently by different ethnic groups.

This led to ethnic cleansing by all sides. Serb destructions of Bosnian Muslim community communities was among the most atrocious atrocities in Europe since World War II.

US power undergirded The Dayton AccordsThis was clearly demonstrated by the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base aircraft taking off. Each of the three parties understood that the United States could apply the squeeze if it didn’t like the outcome, although for each the squeeze was a little bit different.

The Americans could threaten the Serbs (and to a lesser extent the Croats) with airstrikes if they didn’t play ball, and the Bosnians (and to a lesser extent the Croats) with a suspension of aid if they put up too much resistance. After nearly a month-long of tensionful negotiations, the leaders reached a tense accord that has (mostly), maintained peace in Bosnia for the past twenty-seven year.

The Dayton model could theoretically be a template for helping Russia Ukraine and the United States work together to resolve complex territorial and communal issues that arise from Donbas and Luhansk. In practice, Russia’s inability to coerce it into concessions severely limits the United States’ (or any other third-party mediator).

Russia and Ukraine seem to be indifferent to ethnic considerations that shaped preferences for participants in the Wars of Yugoslav Dissolution. It seems difficult to imagine how Russian territorial gains can be negated.

What’s Next? 

Negotiations aren’t magic. Negotiations require careful preparation, and they can only be successful under favorable circumstances. Sometimes negotiations that are successful in reducing a conflict temporarily only set the stage for a larger conflict later. Advocates of forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia before it is time for such negotiations are ripe must answer difficult questions about the structure and expectations of any such talks. Also, we need to ensure that negotiations are successful and can be completed quickly. Dayton was only for a month, but it was the culmination of a three-year-old process. The five-year process that culminated in the Paris Peace Accords took nearly five years. During this time, the war raged on. It is not true that wars can be ended by simply bringing the parties together and encouraging them to speak.

Expert Biography and Expertise

A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Dr. Robert Farley Since 2005, he has been teaching security and diplomacy courses in the Patterson School. In 1997, he received his BS degree from the University of Oregon and his Ph. In 2004, he received his doctorate from the University of Washington. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded. The Case for Eliminating the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky), 2014), Battleship Book, Wildside, 2016, Patents for Power. Intellectual Property Law. Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago), 2020). Waging war with gold: National security and the finance domain across the ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). A number of magazines and journals have featured his contributions, including the National Interest magazine, Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review and American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also the founder and senior editor for Lawyers, Guns, and Money.

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