Can Russia Still Launch an Offensive Against Ukraine?
There are several a-href=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/02/putins-revenge-russia-will-soon-hit-ukraine-with-new-offensive/”>conflicting News stories About the state of ahref=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/tag/russian-military/”>Russia’s Military ambitions This week in Ukraine
Based on analysis by the Institute for the Study of War(ISW),Russian forces could launch a decisive, large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine at the beginning or end of this month.
This attack could be timed to coincide with the one year anniversary of ahref=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/tag/ukraine/”>Russia’s Unprovoked invasion.
Oleksiy Reznikov (Ukraine Defense Minister) stated on February 5th that Such an attack could be symbolic..
Still, it could also be necessitated to allow the Kremlin’s forces to strike Ukrainian positions before the arrival of Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicle.
Germany was only last month. The pledged to send a number main battle tanks (MBTs), Leopard 2 main battle tanks And it also stated that it would allow NATO members to send their Leopard 2s. Germany will also send 88 Leopard I tanks.
The UK also plans to send about a dozen more. Challenger 2 MBTsWhile the United States sends M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicles France will supply AMX-10 RC wheelsed tank destroyers. In the next few months, all of these vehicles will be arriving in Ukraine.
The U.S. will also provide thirty-one M1 Bradley MBTs. However, they might not arrive until the beginning of next year due to logistical or training issues. They will instead of sending existing stocks, they will be made from new production.
Can Russia Really Mount an Attack?
Though analysts suggest Russia may want to mount an attack, the question is whether it could actually succeed – or if it will result in a waste of resources.
Moscow may feel under pressure to start a late-winter, early spring offensive. However, in its daily update on Tuesday the UK Ministry of Defence Not to be forgotten: Russian troops “have only managed to gain several hundred metres of territory per week.”
Russia’s goals have been to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast, however, the gains have been incremental as Russia is likely lacking the munitions and units that are required for a successful offensive, Newsweek reported.
It cited a British assessment that suggested it would be “unlikely” that Russia can build up the forces needed to make a significant impact on the war in the coming weeks – and before Western tanks and other armored vehicles begin to arrive.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen (former NATO Secretary General) expressed doubts about the Kremlin’s ability to do this. Launch a successful offensive following this monthThere is a very limited window of opportunity and it is closing. He added, however, that “it is not time to rest, as this war is far from over.”
Ukraine is facing threats of escalation
Russia also warned that NATO will be dragged into conflict by Western arms supplies.
“The U.S. and its allies are trying to prolong the conflict as much as possible,” Sergei Shoigu, Defence Minister, said this during a conference call to military officials. “To do this, they have started supplying heavy offensive weapons, openly urging Ukraine to seize our territories.
In fact, such steps are dragging NATO countries into the conflict and could lead to an unpredictable level of escalation.”
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Expertise and Author Experience Peter Suciu, a Senior Editor at 19FortyFive is based in Michigan. He is also a member of the Michigan-based writer group, 19FortyFive. Contributed Over a twenty year career in journalism, he has contributed to over four dozen newspapers and magazines. He writes regularly about international affairs, military hardware, firearms history and cybersecurity. Peter is also an author. Contributing Writer Forbes Clearance Jobs. You can follow him Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
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