No one Knows How Many Ukrainians Have Died in the War

Most accounts say that the war in Ukraine represents the most significant war on the European continent after the end of World War II. We don’t know how terrible the conflict has been for humankind, or how many people were killed and injured.

According to the United States military’s current estimates, more than 180,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded during the invasion of Ukraine. Officials admit that there is a large margin of error associated with these staggering figures. However, they didn’t provide any details. Pinning down an exact number is difficult given the U.S. military’s estimate is calculated from satellite imagery, social media, and on-the-ground reporting. 

But if Ukraine is essentially the United States’s benefactor in this war, why have the U.S. and other Western nations turned to satellite imagery and combing the internet to determine how each side is faring in the conflict? Because it is difficult to trust the fragmented data from Russian and Ukrainian governments.

The West expects Russia to do the same. This was made possible by a half-century-long Cold War. Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, announced the last official count of Russian deaths in Ukraine in September. Shoigu said that 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed in the conflict. Russia has probably more precise data internally, which puts its casualties much lower. 

However, this is a normal but ugly practice. To make their position seem stronger, some countries lie about the deaths of soldiers to create a false sense of security. It is much easier to fudge the numbers when a country fights a war more or less alone, like Russia in Ukraine.

These estimates were not only made by the U.S. In late January, General Eirik Kristoffersen, head of the Norwegian Armed Forces, went on television and said that Russia’s casualties number about 180,000, while Ukraine’s casualties number about 100,000. Kristoffersen stated that another 30,000 civilians had died in the conflict. Kristoffersen, however, told the New York Times There is. “much uncertainty regarding these numbers, as no one at the moment are [sic] able to give a good overview. They could be both lower or even higher.”

Western nations have previously estimated casualties on both sides at six figures, dating back to last autumn. General Mark Milley of Joint Chiefs of Staff was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in November 2022. Officials from the United States believed that the casualties on each side were closer to 120,000. Milley told journalists again in January during a German press conference that each side had suffered about 100,000 casualties. “well over 100,000 now,” For each side, at least one person was killed or seriously injured.

Furthermore, in November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Post A video address on Twitter that shows the E.U. Head Claim “it is estimated that 20,000 civilians and more than 100,000 Ukrainian military officers have been killed” since the invasion began in February. 

The Ukrainian government was infuriated. The death toll for Ukrainian soldiers was also claimed by Ukraine. “classified information,” and that von der Leyen’s figure was wrong.

Quietly, the video address was edited to remove von der Leyen’s statement on Ukrainian losses.

In the aftermath, Bohdan Senyk, a spokesman for Ukraine’s armed forces, told a Ukrainian media outlet that the armed forces could not confirm the figure and “emphasize that the losses of the Ukrainian army are classified information and are subject to restrictions on publication.”

Sergey Nikiforov was a spokesperson for President Volodymyr Zilensky and told Suspilne “the information about the losses is ‘sensitive,’ so it can only be disclosed by the commander-in-chief, the minister of defense, or the president himself.”

Dana Spinant, the Deputy Chief Spokesperson of the European Commission thanked Spinant for her response. “those who pointed out the inaccuracy regarding the figures in a previous version of this video,” via Twitter, and added “the estimation used, from external sources, should have referred to casualties, i.e. Both killed and wounded, which was intended to demonstrate Russia’s brutality.”

Despite the silent edit to von der Leyen’s address, the news of 100,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers simply wouldn’t go away. Mykhailo Polyak, Ukrainian presidential advisor, tried to put the story to sleep by attempting to put it to bed. Claim, “official estimates of the General Staff … lie between 10,000 and 12,500-13,000 deaths.”

The American Conservative For clarification on the numbers of Ukrainian casualties, we reached out to the Defense Department (the State Department) and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense within minutes of each other. TAC’s queries were answered by the State Department within minutes. The DOD was notified. TAC was told by the DOD to bring it up with Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense didn’t respond to our request for comment.

Maybe von der Leyen simply misspoke—that she meant to say casualties and not fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a large gap between the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed confirmed by the government (between 10,000 and 13,000)—a number that has certainly grown since that data was released in November—and the estimated 100,000 plus Ukrainian casualties, a metric which includes killed and wounded. It is possible that there could be an easy explanation for the apparent large discrepancy. Perhaps the ratio of killed to wounded is 10 to 1. But Data from the Donetsk People’s Republic in June of 2022—again, data that deserves a healthy amount of skepticism—showed about a ratio of wounded to killed at around four to one. The DPR’s ratio for wounded to die closely matches the historical average. Average. Students in war colleges are taught that the expected number of wounded to killed is between three to four to one.

It is important to pray that both sides suffer fewer casualties than the current U.S. estimates and that the injured far outnumber those who are dead. Tragically, it’s a double-edged weapon.

If the U.S. estimates for Russian losses are drastically exaggerated, then it is possible that more men are still alive than previously believed. This is a good thing. It also means that the U.S. government underestimates the Ukrainians’ ability to fight the Russians. Based on an inaccurate assessment of how Ukraine is doing in this war, more money and weapons are flowing to Ukraine.

There are good reasons to believe that this may be true. The most recent U.S. estimate of 180,000 Russian casualties is about 50,000 higher than the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s estimates of Russians killed or wounded. On February 4, the Ukrainian government Claim Russia had lost approximately 130,590 people. 

Ukraine seems to have improved dramatically since the first outbreak of conflict. Overestimated The Russian casualties. For example, Ukraine was occupied in the first ten days after the conflict began. Claim 11,000 Russian soldiers died, while thousands more were wounded. If that rate of Russian fatalities—excluding wounded soldiers—kept pace, then the number of Russian fatalities should number above 380,000. The fighting was intense in the initial days of the invasion. It is also true that protraction in most cases means less fighting in open and fewer casualties. 

The fighting has been lively. After Russian sallies, the Ukrainian counteroffensives have retaken territory in Kharkiv & Kherson oblasts. Russia has been able to pass through Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with intense fighting in Melitopol. The Russians have used more inexperienced soldiers as reservists and soldiers to keep the offensive going, while Ukraine has acquired more advanced weapons from the West.

These scenarios would lead you to believe that the Russian death rate has fallen to about a third to 25% of the level predicted by the Russian fatalities rate in the first days of war.

It seems that the Ukrainian government has overestimated the Russian losses from the beginning. This is not surprising. It is not unusual for countries to lie about the number and severity of their casualties.

In fact, Ukraine’s history of lying about casualty numbers is well-documented prior to the Russian invasion.

From 2014 to 2015, the Ukrainian government Regularly According to the The, the underestimated the number of Ukrainian casualties in the Donbas War, much to the fury of soldiers and medics on the ground. Kyiv Post. The. Kyiv Post It was estimated that over 200 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in wars in Donbas.

The Ukrainian government continued to deny the reports, as well as figures recorded by Ukraine’s National Museum of Military History, until February of 2015, when the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense was forced to Receipt 1750 Ukrainian soldiers were killed until then.

From 2014 to the Russian invasion on Feb 24, 2022, the United Nations estimated At least 4,400 Ukrainian soldiers had lost their lives.

From casualty figures to the Ghost of Kiev to the myth of Snake Island to the assertion it was a Russian missile and not one from Ukraine that caused the incident killed two Poles in November, Ukraine’s wartime lies continue to stack up.

America’s political leaders know Ukraine has lied and continues to lie. So, why hasn’t President Joe Biden or any powerful western leader called out Zelensky and Ukraine and demanded answers?

Are our leaders willing to believe these Ukrainian stories for the sake and benefit of democracy? Perhaps. Are they willing to tolerate Ukraine’s lies as long as the Ukraine war pads the pockets of the military-industrial complex? It is possible. Are they allowing Ukraine to be exonerated because it allows the U.S. to demilitarize Russia, and send thousands of Ivans back home in pinewood box? This is how many on the right in Washington, D.C. have come to see the conflict. Or maybe the truth, and reality on the ground, simply doesn’t matter. Perhaps the same detachment political elite who have watched carnage and decline at home don’t care about what it causes elsewhere.

One thing is certain, regardless of how many Ukrainian troops were killed or injured. America has already poured more than $100 billion—in weapons, munitions, combat vehicles, tanks, and missile systems—into Ukraine’s defense. This spending will continue even though it is not possible to predict how Ukraine will fare in the war.

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