World War III: What a U.S. vs. China War Would Look Like

Conservative News DailyFebruary 12, 2023

Published 2/10/2023 – What a War Between the U.S. and China Would Look Like: What does the ahref=” mean?https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/5-places-world-war-iii-could-start-in-2023/”>unthinkable happen? The United States and China are inextricably locked into the Pacific Rim’s international trade system. Some argue this makes it easier to trade internationally. Krieg It is impossible to imagine, but people have fought wars. It is believed impossible Have a href=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/joe-biden-has-big-plans-to-sanction-russia-if-putin-invades-ukraine/”>nevertheless broken out.

[embedded content]

Subscribe to 19FortyFive‘s New YouTube Channel Here.)

This article is updated Argument made eight years agoThis focuses less on tactical and operational details of a US/China war and more upon the strategic objectives and plans of major combatants before, throughout, and after the conflict. Although a war between China and the United States could transform East Asia’s geopolitics, it could also leave some key elements unaffected. Tragically, a war between China and the US may be remembered only as “The First Sino-American War.”

America vs. China: What the War Would Look Like

Taiwan It has been the Most likely to trigger war China and the United States. The PRC’s assertiveness in Taiwan and the Biden’s decision to do so ahref=”https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/”>administration To fulfill its commitment To make the defense of the island expliciter, it has made it difficult to imagine a conflicting source.

Beijing’s assessment of the global political environment will dictate how war starts. If you are looking for operational surprise, attacking the US military personnel in the theater of operation would be the best option. This would allow you to inflict the maximum damage on the Americans so that they don’t respond. China might see political advantages in initiating a US response to its preemptive attack. China would launch military operations against Taiwan, and then wait for the US to respond. This is in an attempt to win global sympathy, and possibly a political debate that disrupts the US.

This would allow the United States unrestricted mobilization and staging of its forces. It is likely, however, that the war will be started with a Chinese attack upon American forces at a time when there are many other crises. Despite these facts, Chinese military power grows Over the last 20 years, the PLA preferred not to face the full fury and retaliation of a mobilize American military response. Therefore, U.S. forces need to be ready to take on and withstand an initial Chinese blow that would incapacitate their response and allow them to capture the country quickly. Taiwan.

What would the Allies Do?

Over the past eight years, the U.S.-led alliance system in the Western Pacific region has become more rigid. Japan has The threat was fully understood China’s threat and has begun to re-militarize. The U.S. has engaged Australia United Kingdom in a high level a href=”https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/05/fact-sheet-implementation-of-the-australia-united-kingdom-united-states-partnership-aukus/”>technology and security deal That would appear to confirm the military assistance of both countries. The U.S. has also helped Europe disengage itself from Chinese technology supply chain chains. As tensions between Delhi & Beijing worsen and India’s dependence on Russia increases, U.S.-Indian security relationships have steadily improved.

CSIS recently assumed Japanese participation in the conflict’s beginning, a conclusion that is consistent with regional analytical thinking. But, it is likely that the extent of Japanese support depends on how the war began. The U.S. can likely rely on some British and Australian intervention. Europe (and we don’t mean France) will likely remain neutral militarily, but will assist. Shape the financial and economic future Conditions of war. The allied response to the war would also have an impact on the waging economic and financial aspects. The US-China A huge advantage of trade relationships is their ability to create new opportunities. A large chunk of the world’s economy is dependent on this relationship, and breaking it apart would have terrible consequences before the first bomb was dropped. India and South Korea are huge risk-taker countries; they both prefer China to the US but would take enormous risks by intervening directly.

China has also friends, although not many. Both countries are supportive of each other. Russia North Korea In any conflict, Pyongyang could play a crucial role. Pyongyang’s contribution would probably be ensuring that Seoul and to a lesser extent Tokyo remain distracted from challenging China’s main effort. Russia could play a destabilizing role, contributing to China’s defense industrial needs while threatening disruptive action across a range of fronts. It would all depend on Russia remaining engaged in. Ukraine.

The “Hold Your Breath” Moments

The first “hold your breath” The PLA will launch an attack on a US aircraft carrier. This is the largest escalation against America that can be made, if not a nuclear strike. China attacking a US carrier is not a matter of message sending or posturing. It’s a full-scale commitment to capabilities that will defeat and destroy enemy military forces. A direct attack on a US carrier would be the most dangerous. ballistic missile volley Not only are these missiles difficult to intercept, but they also could be carrying nuclear warheads. The outcome of the first fusillade will determine a lot.

The next frightening moment will be when U.S. missiles attack targets on the Chinese mainland. This could happen hours, or even minutes, after an attack on an American carrier. Due to the US’s nuclear advantage over China, the first wave US strikes will be extremely stressful for both the military and civilian leaders of the PRC.

At some point, China will need to sortie the greater portion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). This will result in two additional “hold your breath” moments. First, a Chinese warship will be destroyed. This could include an aircraft carrier or big amphibib. U.S. forces will regard this as a major objective, and China’s reaction will reveal much about Beijing’s commitment to the war. The next moment will involve China’s SSBN force. It will be a clear indication that Beijing is either very confident or extremely vulnerable if it decides to send its boomers into the American-infested areas.

Finally, the US air force and its land forces might be defeated on Formosa. If the war does not go as planned, US policymakers will have to take deep breathes and decide how much money and blood they are willing to spend to defend the ROC government. This decision-making process will be watched closely by everyone in the Pacific Rim and around the globe.

Who Will Win?

It’s very hard to say who would win, as much depends on how the war will begin. The Center for Strategic and International Studies Recently prepared a Report A series of wargames simulated a Sino/American war over Taiwan. The CSIS study determined A US victory that leaves Taiwan autonomous is the most likely outcome to any conflict. This assumes that Taiwan will resist vigorously, that the U.S. will respond immediately, that the U.S. has access to Japanese bases and that there are enough anti-ship missile cruise missiles.

This formulation still leaves a ahref=”https://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-scorecard.html”>bewildering Unknowns We don’t know how well Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles will function, how destructive US cyber-attacks against the PLAN will prove, or how dangerous the F-22 Raptor will be to “a href=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/j-10c-the-deadly-fighter-jet-spine-of-chinas-air-force/”>conventional Chinese fightersOr how effective the various elements in the PLAN will collaborate in combat. These are the key questions that will determine how successful the PLAN elements in combat.

Domain Command

How severe will the United States interfere with Chinese electronic and communications capabilities?

The communication between the shooters and seers will be key to any attack on US forces. The PLA can be destabilized if the U.S. is able to disrupt this communication. In contrast, cyber-warfare by China against the United States could increase domestic stakes for American policymakers. In space How resistant will the U.S. satellite networks be to attack from Chinese electronic or kinetic measures? What damage can the U.S. do to Chinese surveillance and reconnaissance networks

Missiles vs. Missile Defenses:

How can the USN and USAF defeat Chinese cruise and missile-launched ballistic and tactical missiles? The PLAAF, PLAN and Second Artillery can choose from many options For attacking US forces deployed and deploying US troops in depth. American survival ability depends on their ability to defend themselves against ballistic and cruise missiles as well as their ability to strike and destroy launchers in and around China.

Joint Operations

How will the PLA’s disparate components work together? What about in the context high-intensity disruptive military operations

The PLA, unlike the U.S. military has very little combat experience over the past three decades. How effective will the U.S. commitment work? “jointness” Are you ready to work with the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force and U.S. Marines?

Quality vs. Quantity:

It is highly probable that Chinese forces will achieve numerical superiority at some types of assets including aircraft and ships. How American forces are able to survive and triumph in such situations will depend on the (narrowing!) gap between U.S. technology and Chinese training.

How the War ends and the Peace begins

This war doesn’t end with a surrender Signed on a battleship. It ends with one participant feeling defeated, angry, and probably preparing for next round. The control of Formosa will be decided by a binary. Either the Taipei government will continue to rule the island after a ceasefire or the Beijing government will take over. It is hard to imagine a deal that would give both the Taipei and Beijing some territorial control over the island. The war will be over when the United States stops supporting Republic of China forces in Formosa or when the Chinese naval and air forces are so weak that they cannot even consider a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan or quarantine of Taiwan. This will mark the end of the war or at the very least, the end to high-intensity combat between China and America. A lasting cease-fire may take some time as the defeated government negotiates domestic sales and makes its peace with it.

If China loses but the People’s Republic of China remains essentially intact and the Chinese Communist Party still in power, then “peace” This will only be an interlude between the next war. The CCP cannot accept Taiwan’s permanent independence and retain its domestic legitimacy. China, however, could claim victory either by forcing the United States toward Chinese goals or by dismantling the alliance framework which motivates and legitimizes US action. The United States cannot keep fighting if South Korea and Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines don’t have an interest in fighting. Either of these could cause significant damage to US forces and, possibly, the US economy. This would have long-lasting and unpredictable consequences on US domestic politics.

The aftermath of any victory will feel more like a wilderness than peace, regardless of who it is.

A Window for War

The window of war between the United States, China and Japan could be open for some time. Both sides will need to be prepared for victory, which will require a lot of diplomatic, military and technological resources. Still, we can’t forget that the China, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States trade network constitute the heart of the most dynamic economic regions the world has ever seen. To the detriment and poverty of all, war would doom that engine.

It will take a lot of diplomatic skills and political acumen to prevent war, but it is worth it.

Author expertise and experience:

A 19FortyFive Contributing editor, Dr. Robert Farley Since 2005, he has been a Patterson School instructor of diplomacy and security courses. In 1997, he received his BS degree from the University of Oregon and his Ph. In 2004, he received his doctorate from the University of Washington. Dr. Farley is also the author of Grounded, The Case for Abolishing America’s Air Force (University Press of Kentucky 2014), Battleship Book (Wildside 2016, 2016), Patents for Power : Intellectual Property Law and Diffusion of Military Tech (University of Chicago 2020), and other publications. Waging War With Gold: National Security and Finance Domains Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). His contributions have been extensive to many magazines and journals, including the National Interest and Diplomat: APAC. Dr. Farley is also the founder and senior editor for Lawyers, Guns, and Money.