No one Knows How Many Ukrainians Have Died in the War

Most accounts say that the war in Ukraine represents the most significant war on the European continent after the end of World War II. It is not known how catastrophic the conflict was in terms of human suffering, and the number of those who were killed or wounded.

The United States military estimates that more than 180,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded during the invasion. Officials acknowledge that there is a significant margin of error in these striking numbers, but they didn’t elaborate on how large. Pinning down an exact number is difficult given the U.S. military’s estimate is calculated from satellite imagery, social media, and on-the-ground reporting. 

But if Ukraine is essentially the United States’s benefactor in this war, why have the U.S. and other Western nations turned to satellite imagery and combing the internet to determine how each side is faring in the conflict? Because it is difficult to trust the fragmented data from Russian and Ukrainian governments.

The West expects Russia to do the same. This was made possible by a half-century-long Cold War. Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, announced the last official count of Russian deaths in Ukraine in September. Shoigu stated that only 5,937 Russian military personnel were killed during the invasion. Russia may have more accurate information internally that places its casualties higher. 

This is a common but unacceptable practice. To make their position appear stronger than it actually is, some countries lie about the deaths of soldiers. Fudging numbers when a country is fighting in a conflict on its own, such as Russia’s in Ukraine, is less problematic than when it relies on other countries for support.

These estimates were not only made by the U.S. In late January, General Eirik Kristoffersen, head of the Norwegian Armed Forces, went on television and said that Russia’s casualties number about 180,000, while Ukraine’s casualties number about 100,000. Kristoffersen stated that another 30,000 civilians had died in the conflict. Kristoffersen said the following after his TV appearance. New York Times There is. “much uncertainty regarding these numbers, as no one at the moment are [sic] able to give a good overview. They could be both lower or even higher.”

The six-figure figure for casualties suffered by both sides in previous estimates made by Western countries date back to last fall. General Mark Milley of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said that each side had suffered approximately 100,000 casualties in November 2022. But, U.S. officials privately believed it was closer at 120,000. Milley told journalists again in January during a German press conference that each side had suffered about 100,000 casualties. “well over 100,000 now,” Each side has been wounded or killed.

Furthermore, in November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Post A video address on Twitter that shows the E.U. head Claim “it is estimated that 20,000 civilians and more than 100,000 Ukrainian military officers have been killed” since the invasion began in February. 

The Ukrainian government was furious. Gleichzeitig, the Ukrainian government was outraged. “classified information,” and that von der Leyen’s figure was wrong.

Quietly, the video address was edited to remove von der Leyen’s statement on Ukrainian losses.

In the aftermath, Bohdan Senyk, a spokesman for Ukraine’s armed forces, told a Ukrainian media outlet that the armed forces could not confirm the figure and “emphasize that the losses of the Ukrainian army are classified information and are subject to restrictions on publication.”

Sergey Nikiforov was a spokesperson for President Volodymyr Zilensky and told Suspilne “the information about the losses is ‘sensitive,’ so it can only be disclosed by the commander-in-chief, the minister of defense, or the president himself.”

Dana Spinant, the Deputy Chief Spokesperson of the European Commission thanked Spinant for her response. “those who pointed out the inaccuracy regarding the figures in a previous version of this video,” via Twitter, and added “the estimation used, from external sources, should have referred to casualties, i.e. both injured and killed, was meant to highlight Russia’s brutality.”

Despite the silent edit to von der Leyen’s address, the news of 100,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers simply wouldn’t go away. Mykhailo Polyak, the Ukrainian presidential advisor, attempted to put the story to rest to make it seem more real. Claim, “official estimates of the General Staff … lie between 10,000 and 12,500-13,000 deaths.”

The American Conservative For clarification on the numbers of Ukrainian casualties, we reached out to the Defense Department (the State Department) and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense within minutes of each other. TAC’s queries were answered by the State Department within minutes. The DOD was notified. TAC was instructed by the DOD that they would discuss it with the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense declined to comment.

Maybe von der Leyen simply misspoke—that she meant to say casualties and not fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a large gap between the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed confirmed by the government (between 10,000 and 13,000)—a number that has certainly grown since that data was released in November—and the estimated 100,000 plus Ukrainian casualties, a metric which includes killed and wounded. It is possible that there could be an easy explanation for the apparent large discrepancy. The ratio of wounded to dead could be ten to one, or higher. But Data from the Donetsk People’s Republic in June of 2022—again, data that deserves a healthy amount of skepticism—showed about a ratio of wounded to killed at around four to one. The DPR’s ratios of wounded to kill closely mirrors historical figures. Average. Students in war colleges are taught that the expected number of wounded to killed is between three to four to one.

One should pray that there are fewer casualties on both sides than current U.S. estimates. Also, that the number of wounded is far greater than that of the dead. Tragically, it’s a double-edged weapon.

If the U.S. estimates for Russian losses are drastically exaggerated, then it is possible that more men are still alive than previously believed. This is a good thing. However, it means that the U.S. government overestimates the Ukrainians ability to defeat the Russians. Based on an inaccurate assessment of how Ukraine is doing in this war, more money and weapons are flowing to Ukraine.

This is a possibility. The most recent U.S. estimate of 180,000 Russian casualties is about 50,000 higher than the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s estimates of Russians killed or wounded. On February 4, the Ukrainian government Claim Russia had suffered about 130,590 deaths. 

Ukraine has seen a dramatic improvement in its situation since the beginning of the conflict. Overestimated The Russian casualties. Ukraine, for instance, was attacked in the first ten day of the conflict. Claim 11,000 Russian soldiers died, while thousands more were wounded. If that rate of Russian fatalities—excluding wounded soldiers—kept pace, then the number of Russian fatalities should number above 380,000. Certain, the fighting during the initial days of the invasion was intense. However, it is true that protraction means less fighting openly and a slower pace of casualties. 

The fighting has been lively. After Russian sallies the Ukrainian counteroffensives retaken territory from Kharkiv, Kherson oblasts. Russia has made its way through Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with intense fighting in Melitopol. The Russians have used more inexperienced soldiers as reservists and soldiers to keep the offensive going, while Ukraine has acquired more advanced weapons from the West.

These are the scenarios that would lead one to believe that Russian fatalities have fallen to around a third or a quarter of the rate predicted for Russian fatalities during the war’s opening days.

It seems that the Ukrainian government has overestimated the Russian losses from the beginning. This is not surprising. This is because countries are encouraged to lie about how many casualties they have suffered.

In fact, Ukraine’s history of lying about casualty numbers is well-documented prior to the Russian invasion.

The Ukrainian government was in decline from 2014 to 2015. Keep checking back regularly According to the The, the underestimated the number of Ukrainian casualties in the Donbas War, much to the fury of soldiers and medics on the ground. Kyiv Post. The. Kyiv Post It was estimated that over 200 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in wars in Donbas.

The Ukrainian government continued to deny the reports, as well as figures recorded by Ukraine’s National Museum of Military History, until February of 2015, when the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense was forced to Receipt 1750 Ukrainian troops were killed to this point.

The United Nations estimates that between 2014 and the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022 the United Nations has estimated that At least 4,400 Ukrainian soldiers were killed.

From casualty figures to the Ghost of Kiev to the myth of Snake Island to the assertion it was a Russian missile and not one from Ukraine that caused the incident killed two Poles in November, Ukraine’s wartime lies continue to stack up.

America’s political leaders know Ukraine has lied and continues to lie. So, why hasn’t President Joe Biden or any powerful western leader called out Zelensky and Ukraine and demanded answers?

Do these Ukrainian stories count as noble lies in the name of democracy? Perhaps. Are they willing to tolerate Ukraine’s lies as long as the Ukraine war pads the pockets of the military-industrial complex? It is possible. They excuse Ukraine, because it gives the U.S. an excuse for demilitarizing Russia and sending thousands of Ivans home to their pinewood boxes. This is the way Washington, D.C.’s right-leaning politicians have come to view the conflict. Or maybe the truth, and reality on the ground, simply doesn’t matter. Perhaps the same detachment political elite who have watched carnage and decline at home don’t care about what it causes elsewhere.

One thing is certain, regardless of how many Ukrainian troops were killed or injured. America has already poured more than $100 billion—in weapons, munitions, combat vehicles, tanks, and missile systems—into Ukraine’s defense. Despite not being able to assess the performance of Ukraine in the war, this spending is expected.

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