Austin Bay: To End the War, Attack Russia’s Center of Gravity: Vladimir Putin

We are approaching the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There is no diplomatic or military route to a ceasefire, much less a just peace.

Despite its resources and manpower, Russia’s inept military can’t field and employ decisive fighting power. While Ukraine survives on the battlefield but Russian missiles decimate its cities,

Is it possible to stop bloodshed and encourage fruitful negotiations?

Perhaps — if we focus on the war’s center of gravity.

“Center of gravity” This concept was created by Gen. Carl von Clausewitz, a military theorist. There are many definitions available, some of which can be applied to grand strategy, others to operations. A center of gravity is defined by the U.S. Department of Defense “the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act.” Dr. Milan Vego, Naval War College professor, says (I paraphrase), that a center gravity is a “source of leverage” Your destruction will have a profound impact.

Vladimir Putin is the Russian president.

Putin has used claims of Russian victimhood to promote ethnic Russians’ hatreds since the mid-1990s. These passions in turn mobilize ethnic Russian support to an imperial war to reclaim territory that Putin claims belong to Russia. The key pieces of Putin’s reconstructed puzzle are Russia, Ukraine Belarus, Kazakhstan and the RUBK.

Putin himself is the driving strategic force — the center of gravity — behind the 21st century war for the Russian Empire, with Ukraine being its bloodiest phase.

My first column after the February 2022 Russian invasion began was arguing that an internal coup or a victory for Putin would be the best way of ending the war. “a nine-millimeter solution” — a bullet in his head.

It’s still the best alternative. It seems that Putin is aware of it. According to reports, Putin is now traveling by armored train rather than flying by plane. Evidently, he is afraid of Ukrainian drones.

Is it possible for Ukraine and its allies to encourage or facilitate his removal?

Although there are no guarantees, it’s worth trying.

Hard diplomatic narrative warfare should personalize war, tie it to Putin and promote his removal “to promote peace.” Emphasize Russia’s isolation — not even Belarus will join the war. Russia should be reminded of the fact that 150,000 Russians were killed in the first year Putin’s War. Digital media porosity can ensure that the number reaches tens to millions of Russians. Even though Russians know this number already, the political pressure placed on Vlad is increased by insisting on it.

The harsh narrative should highlight that Ukraine is fighting a delusional clique rather than the Russian people, who are co-Slavs.

The West’s diplomats must make it clear that a post Putin Russia will be able to benefit from close economic, political, security and security relations. What security relationships? Putin’s Ukraine quagmire has weakened Russia and made Siberia susceptible to communist Chinese exploitation.

Other diplomatic-economic options exist. You can, for example, punish any international activity that has a political or personal connection to Putin. You can freeze the assets. Make a spectacle of it.

Special forces and military operations against Putin must be planned. According to Western sources, pro or anti-Putin Russians in Russia have given Ukraine targeting data and information about Russian military activities. Russian strategic bomber base bases have been hit by Ukrainian drones.

These military-economic operations offer a good option. Bounties are already paid by Ukraine to Russian soldiers who defect and bring along a tank. You could offer Putin a $900million reward for his arrest. It’s less expensive than a month of war. Get all cowboy and produce “Wanted Dead or Alive” posters. A schtick? Sure. The posters will be distributed worldwide.

If the mega-jackpot Powerball bounty attracts corrupt actors in the Kremlin — good. A few Russian elites might vacillate and defect — or pull the trigger.

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