The War in Ukraine Could Mean the End for Putin

But I was right. I was stunned when Russian strongman Vladimir PutinThe army Invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Putin They defy reason Russia Now he is paying the price for what he did. One of the greatest strategic mistakes in history.

Russia is poised for an “a href=” one year laterhttps://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/ukraine-is-turning-into-one-monster-graveyard-for-russias-tanks/”>embarrassing And deeply self-destructive defeat. In fact It is already lost Inasmuch that it, a self-described great power, was involved in a conflict with a much smaller and weaker country, it has failed to win. It’s like the United States invaded Mexico 12 months ago, and only managed to keep a small portion of Mexican territory for twelve months, while suffering terrible losses.

Russia: Ukraine War has made Russia a less powerful country

The war has had the first effect on Russia, which is that it no longer qualifies for the title of a great power. Although Russia retains a seat on United Nations Security Council and still has thousands upon thousands of nuclear warheads in its arsenal, its armed forces and economy have been exposed to be third-rate. The contrast is that Ukraine’s army, previously weak and poorly commanded, has been exposed to be a “a href=”https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/02/16/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/11270950002/”>impressive fighting force This is certain to change Ukraine’s postwar geopolitical standing.

Worse still, the war has produced the exact opposite of what Putin intended. It has strengthened and galvanized the West. NATOBy a href=”https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/01/my-military-experience-in-a-leopard-2-tank/”>strengthening Ukraine’s military and political elites, completely failed to accomplish Putin’s initial goals—demilitarization and “de-Nazification.” Ukraine’s most important “Nazi,” His Jewish President Volodymyr Zelensky, has been the darling West and an authoritative figure in much the world.

Putin the doomed? 

Worse, Russia’s regime and Putin could be destroyed by the conflict. Even the most apathetic Russian elites recognize that Putin has brought Russia’s fortunes to an all-time low. Russia’s war with the West will continue to be a disaster, and it will. Putin’s chances at being deposed are increasing Eventually, as is the case in most countries that are in multiple crises because of leader incompetence it happens that the person responsible loses his authority and his head.

Putin will be gone, and his fascist, highly centralized regime within which he was the linchpin will likely collapse. Russia’s democratic forces stand a good chance of winning the fierce power struggle that is certain to erupt. Such an outcome could bring an end to the war and save Russia’s state. Or, civil war is possible in Russia if the struggle goes on for too long or the fascists prevail. A number of non-Russian units within the Russian Federation will likely split if this happens. Ramzan Kadyrov (the Chechen dictator) will be first. He has a large private army and will gladly stab his former allies in the Kremlin. The Russia state could be history if others follow as they will.

In the meantime, Ukraine will use chaos in Russia to consolidate control of the territories Putin seized between 2014 and 2022. The Ukrainian economy Although it will be chaotic, Kyiv’s strategic importance, moral authority and military strength should ensure that it gets significant economic support. The resilience and dedication of the Ukrainians to rebuilding will promote economic recovery.

In February 2022, it was difficult to imagine that the war would last a year. It is hard to imagine how the situation will be one year from now. However, unless some miracle happens, we can be sure that Putin and Russia will be further down the road to defeat. The end of the war is less certain but still possible. We could see the acceleration of the forces described above if Russia’s major offensive fails, which it most likely will, or if Ukraine’s counteroffensive succeeds. Putin, his regime and the Russian state may be gone by February 24, 2024.

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Contributing Editor at 19FortyFive Dr. Alexander Motyl Rutgers-Newark’s professor of political science. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He maintains a weekly blog. “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”

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