7 Questions Everyone Should Be Asking About Ukraine
As the war between Russia & Ukraine drags on, it is becoming more obvious that very little strategic thought has gone into what we are trying to accomplish in Ukraine. In March last year, I was surprised to see that Our financial tactics against Russia were likely to cause a lot more damage than we anticipated.
Just as a side note, what we’re doing in Russia today is unprecedented and could have ENORMOUS, far-reaching consequences for the American and world economy that few people have thought about or even understand — including the people implementing them. …Could we see a particularly brutal recession? A faster end to the dollar’s role as a reserve currency. A closer economic partnership between China and Russia Large numbers American companies are being kept out of Russia and other countries by the US government. Surprisingly, there have been massive increases in the price of food and oil as well as severe shortages.
This has been mostly true. However, the sanctions that we imposed on Russia have proved to be much less effective than what they appeared back then. It was believed that Russia would fall to the bottom of our sanctions. However, at this point it would be fair to say otherwise. Label the sanctions as a failure:
One month after the invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden stood before a magnificent Polish castle courtyard and described the economic hardships that the U.S., its allies, were inflicting upon Vladimir Putin’s Russia. He declared that the ruble was almost immediately available “reduced to rubble.”
According to U.S. officials Russia is currently the most sanctioned country in the world. In fact, the ruble took a temporary plunge and has been falling again in recent weeks. It’s becoming clear that the sanctions did not deliver the immediate impact many expected.
Although the ruble is trading at the same 75-per dollar rate as it was in weeks prior to the war, Russia uses capital controls to support the currency. While Russia’s economy shrank 2.2% in 2022 according to official estimates by the Biden administration, this was still well below the 15% or more predicted. According to the International Monetary Fund, Russia’s economy will outperform that of the United Kingdom this year. It is expected to grow 0.3%, while the U.K. will experience a contraction of 0.6%.
Strategically, the goal appeared to be a variation from what we did to Afghanistan’s Russians. I was elected to the Board of Directors in March last year. You can describe it as::
While we may sympathize and even dislike Russia, neither Russia nor Ukraine are our friends or allies. We don’t want to see Russia’s economy fall apart while they try to win a Pyrrhic victory. This would result in their economic ruin and long-term insurgency. In other words, Putin has made a terrible mistake and we should keep shipping military aid to Ukraine, hold the line on sanctions (which we went overboard with and may come to regret down the road – more here – but in for a penny, in for a pound) and let Putin try to figure out how to extricate himself from this mess while we watch from the sidelines.
Since then, however, many things have occurred. As was mentioned above, sanctions have proven ineffective. Joe Biden made a mistake when he said that Putin was “interrogable.”We cannot continue to be in power.” Also, Putin might not feel that Ukraine is a country he doesn’t like. “do or die” Biden’s comments would have been a positive for him.
We have already invested an unimaginable amount in this war. In the five years that Reagan supported the Taliban in their war against the Russians, they spent just under 4 billion dollars. We are at 113 billion and growingThis is more that TRIPLE of what the rest of the world is contributing. All of this is on top of the fact that we are becoming more involved than we should in this conflict. While it was widely known that we sent the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, (HIMARS), to Ukraine, no one mentioned that. We had to target them.. This blurs the distinction between Russia at war or Ukraine at war AND the United States. In a similar scenario, we would consider Russia’s actions to be war crimes.
All of this raises questions that almost no one seems willing to answer publicly. Questions like:
1) What’s the endgame? You can say: “Ukraine wins and Russia loses,” It sounds good, but how do you get there? Putin may be correct to see this as a war that must be won to survive. It doesn’t seem like sanctions are going to make Russia give up. The best scenario is for Russia to expel its troops from Ukraine. But, is this possible? But if that is possible, what then? Ukraine cannot go on the offensive to conquer Russia.
2) How much money will we put in Ukraine? We are in for more than 100 billion dollars in less that a year. Do we want to go two hundred billion dollars? 500 billion? A trillion? A trillion?
3) When does support start to drop in the United States for the war? This is what we’ve seen in America’s wars. It is usually supported by a large number of people when the war starts. It becomes a partisan issue over time and support drops for the war. The war becomes a political hot topic and eventually we end up pulling out. There is already significant resistance in America to the war. It’s possible that 2024’s GOP candidate may run on an antiwar platform. “war skeptical” platform. How long will Ukraine be able to remain independent? “win?” Russia may not be aware for as long, but it is possible.
4) How much is our money being stolen? US aid was stolen in large amounts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it is certain that the same amount of US aid is being stolen in Ukraine. We’ve actually already done this. A government official was caught stealing money. It’s possible to be sure that this is only the tip of an iceberg. What percentage of your money will end up in secret accounts owned by Ukrainian officials? The smart money has hundreds of millions, if it is not even billions.
5) What strategic objectives do we have at this moment? We are not referring to Australia, Israel, and Britain here. Ukraine is neither an ally nor a friend to America. They are also not located in a strategic geographic area. Russia is a hostile country, but we are not at war. This is an optional fight for us. So what are we trying achieve?
According to what we have seen in the media and war propaganda, Russia has already suffered a lot from the conflict in Ukraine. Given their low performance, it is clear that they aren’t threatening to invade any NATO nations. We don’t want the conflict to go nuclear. This is possible, though it is unlikely. What do we want to accomplish? Were we willing to spend a lot of money and wait for Putin to be removed? Why would we do that, when he is likely to be replaced by someone ideologically identical? What are we trying here?
6) What happens to Ukraine if it loses? Many people seem to start with the assumption that Ukraine is the best. “good guy,” Although they will win, it is quite possible that Russia will be victorious. Ironically, it could make the war cheaper and more sustainable on our side. Because it’s far less costly to supply IEDS or anti-tank missiles to insurgents, than to supply conventional forces. It could, however, be demoralizing enough for support to fall apart and there is no guarantee that a significant rebellion will arise.
7) Are you open to the idea of a peace agreement? A Ukrainian politician who would sign a peace agreement right now would most likely be taken to his grave by his own people. “no,”We get a vote, but they cannot fight this war without our help. Although we don’t publicly make any effort to achieve peace, Russia will gain more momentum as the war continues. We may never have much more leverage to make a deal than we do right now. Should we talk about peace right now, or wait?
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