Five Republican House primaries to watch in 2024

With 2024 fast approaching, buzz has already begun to surround the Republican House primaries.

While most attention is fixated on the Republican presidential primary for 2024, many forget that all 435 House seats are up for election as well. With Republicans only holding a narrow majority currently, just a few races could decide which party controls the House. Much depends on the quality of Republican candidates, which will be decided earlier in 2024.

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Here are five different races bound to be close, according to the Cook Political Report.

1. Tony Gonzales (TX-23)

Rep. Tony Gonzales became the second congressman in Texas Republican Party history to be censured due to his support for a gun control bill, to codify same-sex marriage into law, and his rejection of a border security bill from fellow Texan Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX).

He now faces the might of the state Republican Party, with Medina County GOP Chair Julie Clark already joining the race as a primary challenger. In 2020, prior to his censure, he beat Sen. Ted Cruz-backed Air Force veteran Raul Reyes by just seven votes. Now stripped of his state’s party support, which is likely to back his opponent, Gonzales faces a tough race.

2. French Hill (AR-02)

Hill, a Little Rock banker first elected in 2014, has recently cast himself as an anti-Trump Republican, going on CNN to call for a GOP presidential challenger to Trump in 2024, voting to certify the 2020 election and establish the Jan. 6 Committee, and bashing former President Donald Trump‘s claims of election fraud. He was already sobered in 2022 when he won against retired Michael Flynn-backed Army colonel Conrad Reynolds by 59%-41%, despite outspending him by a factor of five and a half.

Another Trump-backed challenger is all but assured to confront Hill again in 2024, although his allies hope that his conservative credentials will help him prevail.

3. Dusty Johnson (SD-At Large)

Despite South Dakota voting strongly for Trump in the past two presidential elections, its only representative, Johnson, has positioned himself as the former president’s opposite; a centrist, policy-oriented representative whose personality contrasts heavily with that of Trump. He also voted with Democrats against Trump on several hot-button issues, including overriding Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the Mexican border, establishing the Jan. 6 Committee, and keeping former Rep. Liz Cheney as Republican conference chair.

With his 2022 showing already underwhelming, Johnson could be in trouble in 2024 if pro-Trump elements of the party decide to put effort into unseating him.

4. Dan Newhouse (WA-04)

Newhouse is one of two remaining Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, with the other eight being defeated in 2022. He was only able to keep his seat after the pro-Trump opposition vote was split in three; he won just 26% of the vote in the primary. If the pro-Trump base can unify around a single candidate, Newhouse will be in deep trouble.

So far, he has relied on a fracturing coalition of centrist Republicans, Democrats, and independents to get by; the latter two of which will be unable to help him in an exceedingly difficult primary.

5. Dan Webster (FL-11)

Webster, 73, once an insurgent Freedom Caucus-backed candidate, now faces a daunting challenge from the right in the form of Laura Loomer, an energetic, pro-Trump firebrand endorsed by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). He defeated her by just seven points in 2022, although Loomer has yet to concede, citing election fraud.

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Loomer has cast Webster’s age and seeming lack of energy as a central issue, with the incumbent being absent for a number of Congressional votes and failing to raise much money in comparison to Loomer.

With Loomer bound to challenge him again in 2024, Webster faces a difficult race.