SVB collapse: Fed’s plans for rate hikes fall by the wayside

The debacle with the federal government’s intervention in Silicon Valley Bank’s failure makes it increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will hold off on raising interest rates next week.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced on Friday that Silicon Valley Bank, known as SVB, had failed and been taken into government hands. The move caused some to speculate about a bank run, with regulators also closing major crypto lender Signature Bank on Sunday. Officials provided reassurances over the weekend that the banking system was sound.

Just days ago, a big contingent of investors was betting that the Federal Reserve would increase its scale of rate hikes and conduct a half-percentage point revision in response to rising inflation. But with the fallout from the collapses of SVB and Signature, many now think the Fed won’t act at all next week and will keep rates at their current level to avoid further stress to the banking system.

Before SVB’s collapse, about a week ago, investors were pegging the odds of a 0.5 percentage point hike at the Fed’s meeting this month at about 31%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which calculates the probability using futures contract prices for rates in the short-term market targeted by the Fed. They put the odds of a milder 0.25 percentage point increase at about 68%.

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By Monday morning and after a weekend of turmoil and speculation, those odds were totally transformed. The odds of no hike were approaching 50%, with the other half betting on a 0.25 percentage point hike.

But things are moving fast as investors process a flurry of data and analysis coming from all directions.

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