Michael Barone: Will Republicans Find a Way to Get Their Way in 2024?

In about 12-13 months, the race for presidential nomination for the Republicans and the Democrats (if there will be any) will most probably be over. Predictions this far in advance for such contests, however, have mostly come to naught. Think of Rudy Giuliani or Jeb Bush when the balloon drop ebbed after their acceptance speeches. With that said, given primary contests’ history, it is useful to note that we may be seeing a contest between former President Donald Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL).

In the past, the Democratic Party would often have vast battles, which produced surprise nominees, including George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis, and Bill Clinton, whereas Republican primaries usually contained one-on-one races between nationally recognized contenders—Gerald Ford vs. Ronald Reagan in 1976, George H.W. Bush vs. Bob Dole in 1988, and George W. Bush vs. John McCain in 2000.

Since 2000, however, this pattern has usually been reversed; Democrats had one-on-one contests in 2008 and 2016 and quickly settled on one among multiple candidates in 2004 and 2020. In contrast, Republicans had multicandidate brawls in 2008, 2012, and struggled with a field too large for one debate stage in 2016.

The Democratic Party initially had much larger primary electorates and more legislatures in most states during the 1970s, which allowed it to set schedules and rules. Currently, Republicans have more legislatures, and their primary voters are considerably more substantial and rowdier. While Democrats may renominate incumbent presidents, as they did in 1996 and 2012, Republicans probably would head to a two-candidate race, despite former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) announcing her candidacy.

Past contests suggest that this will look like multicandidate races boiling down into two-candidate runoffs that pitted the likes of McCain, Mitt Romney—candidates who carried counties in major metro areas, where primary voters tend to be college graduates—against Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, who carried counties in smaller metros or outside metro areas, where most primary voters are non-college graduates. While non-college-educated white voters have been prominent in Republican primaries, this domination can be overstated. Trump won the 2016 nomination, for instance, with merely a 44% plurality of votes in a sixteen-candidate field.

Trump had significant leads only in five states where voting had taken place through April 5: New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Ohio, and Arizona. When John Kasich, whose campaign appealed to the kind of Republican voters who dislike Republican voters, is also included, the list narrows to just Massachusetts and Mississippi. Accordingly, DeSantis could compete against Trump in the bulk of primaries and amass delegate totals to withstand Trump’s strength in states such as New York and West Virginia.

After the midterm elections revealed a backlash against Trump-supported candidates, Trump’s lead over DeSantis fell from 47% to 29%. Recent polls taken by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies indicate that DeSantis is even with Trump in New Hampshire and leads him in Iowa.

It’s important to note that DeSantis hasn’t even declared his nomination, and even though it’s possible that the GOP will get its nominee in 2024, nothing is for sure yet. Also, it’s uncertain whether the 76-year-old Trump or the 80-year-old Biden will be sufficiently in good health. However, history and current polling imply that most voters who don’t want to vote for these two leaders may find a way to get their way.

Michael Barone is a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and the longtime co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.

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