Taiwan’s President and Former President Visit US and China Respectively

Tsai Ing-wen, President of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, visited the United States while the previous president, Ma Ying-jeou of the opposing Kuomintang party, traveled to China for an ancestor worship trip. Observers predict that the DPP and KMT will engage in a battle over pro-U.S. and pro-China issues in the lead up to the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election.

On March 29, Tsai began her visit to Central American allies and stopped in New York on the way. On March 30, she received the Global Leadership Award from the Hudson Institute. After passing through Los Angeles on her return trip on April 5, she will give a speech at the Reagan Library and is expected to meet with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

During her visit, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian threatened retaliation for any meeting with McCarthy, but did not specify any actions.

Ma’s Visit to China

Ma visited mainland China on March 27 to pay respects to the founding father of the Republic of China, Sun Yat-sen, at the Nanjing Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum. Taiwan was under Japanese colonial rule until 1945 and was returned to the Republic of China (ROC), which retreated to Taiwan when the communists took over mainland China and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949.

While former Nationalist Party chairman Lian Zhan was greeted with a level of courtesy consistent with a deputy state head during his 2005 visit to China, the CCP welcomed Ma at a lower level during his recent visit. This suggests that the regime is reinforcing its claim that Taiwan is a province for the CCP to rule.

China affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan argued that the ROC has legally existed for 112 years and its legal status as the official government of China never ceased. He characterized the CCP’s establishment of a separate regime as the primary reason for China’s division and compared it to the historical “separate rule by the river” that divided the north and south of China into different states.

During Ma’s visit, he referred to Taiwan using its official name, the Republic of China, while speaking at the burial site of his ancestors in Xiangtan city in Hunan Province on April 1. However, he chose to express his support for the 1992 consensus, which defines ‘one China’ as an agreement between the KMT of Taiwan and the CCP, in an interview with mainland Chinese media. The CCP insists that ‘one China’ is ruled by the PRC whereas some people in Taiwan reject the consensus.

Chen Wen-Chia, a senior consultant of the Taiwan National Policy Research Institute and director of the National and Regional Development Research Center, warned that if Ma fails to properly represent Taiwan’s sovereignty and dignity, his visit may negatively impact the KMT’s election campaign, as Taiwanese people generally view his visit to China positively.

Wu Chonghan, an associate professor at the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University in Taiwan, interpreted Ma’s visit as more active and conciliatory in light of recent intense U.S.-China competition. Wu noted that the KMT has varying opinions regarding the 1992 consensus and Ma aims to direct the party’s cross-strait rhetoric toward being pro-China.

2024 Presidential Election

Lai Ching-te, the vice president and current chairman of the DPP, will represent the DPP in the 2024 presidential election. The KMT has not yet announced its candidate for the presidential election. With Tsai’s visit to the U.S. and Ma’s visit to China, it seems the two parties are already in a competition over their stance on cross-strait or U.S. relations.