‘Uncharted Territory’: Trump Indictment Will Boost Him in GOP Primary, But Long-Term Impact Remains to be Seen, Analysts Say

Former President Donald Trump’s recent indictment is expected to give him a short-term boost in the Republican primary, according to political analysts. However, the long-term impact remains to be seen. The indictment has deepened the nation’s partisan divide and may not be the last prosecution issued against Trump. At present, he is facing three ongoing investigations.

“In the short term, the indictment will reinforce the two-person race and strengthen Trump,” said veteran political analyst Bob Holsworth of Richmond, Virginia. “But this is not likely to be the only one. And the question is, as these pile up later this spring and summer, will it open up a lane for someone other than these two?”

“We’re in uncharted territory, and I think we’ll likely twists and turns beyond the immediate impact.”

On Thursday, Trump became the first former president in history to be criminally charged when a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him on charges related to the payment of hush money to an adult film actress in the weeks leading up to the 2016 presidential election. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg had been investigating whether the payment, made by then-Trump attorney Michael Cohen, was misclassified.

The charges have not been revealed but are widely believed to include felony-level falsification of business records. This necessitates the prosecution to prove that the fraud was intended to cover up a violation of federal campaign finance laws. This is believed to be a high-risk legal strategy.

The charges will be made public during the arraignment on the afternoon of April 4th in Manhattan, when Trump, who has maintained his innocence, is expected to plead not guilty.

Following the indictment, the Trump campaign’s fundraising efforts have paid off, announcing that it had raised over $4 million within 24 hours. Trump has been presented as a victim, a martyr for voters.

Meanwhile, Democrats have reacted to the news with joy and vindication.

According to Robert Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, Republican-leaning independents who vote in the GOP primaries will now likely support Trump, taking cues from their political leaders who have “reacted very hostile toward the indictment.”

In his opinion, the charges have shifted the playing field of the primary in Trump’s favor. However, this could change as potential indictment efforts unfold in other investigations against him.

As of now, Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have captured most of the media attention, meaning other GOP presidential hopefuls may need to re-evaluate their campaigns.

For his part, DeSantis, who has come out in support of Trump in the indictment, may need to figure out how to gain supportive Republican primary voters against Trump effectively.