Inflation plummets to 2.7% in March in producer price index

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has reported that the annual rate of inflation measured by the producer price index declined to 2.7% in March, reaching the lowest level in over two years. On a monthly basis, the wholesale price index fell by 0.5%, according to the report released on Thursday, which was an unexpected drop for forecasters who were expecting a mild increase. The producer price index’s headline number is now the lowest it has been since January 2021, and this monthly decrease is the biggest drop since March 2020.

FED STAFF PREDICTS RECESSION THIS YEAR

This decline is an indication that inflationary pressures are abating, which is partly due to the Federal Reserve’s campaign to slow down economy-wide spending by increasing interest rates. The chief economist at FWDBONDS, Chris Rupkey said, “Producers are likely to cut consumers a break from the rapid price increases they have passed on over the last year. Core producer price inflation has been cut in half from year-ago levels, which shows the rapid Fed rate hikes since March 2022 are starting to bite.” Nevertheless, inflation is still running much hotter than the central bank’s target, which is impacting household purchasing power since producers’ prices eventually translate into higher prices paid by households.

However, it appears that the inflation rate, as measured by the PPI, has peaked and is starting to trend downwards. The annual wholesale inflation hit its peak in March 2022. The Federal Reserve’s target for inflation is 2%, although it uses a different gauge to evaluate that target. The high inflation levels of the past two years have battered household purchasing power and undermined support for President Joe Biden’s economic agenda.

This Thursday’s report on the PPI has come a day after a closely watched consumer index report, which fell to 5%, marking a decrease from the previous month. The annual CPI inflation rate has been declining since peaking in June 2021.

The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates for over a year, and this week, minutes from the Fed’s March meeting were released, which showed that central bank staff now expect a recession this year following their assessment of the potential economic effects of recent banking-sector developments. The readout of the meeting stated, “the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”

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