Calm before the storm? McCarthy’s majority holds together after 100 days

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) secured his job with 15 ballots, but that seems like a distant memory 100 days into the Republican’s majority. However, his biggest challenges lie ahead as he seeks to pass legislation that divides Democrats.

Despite not having a Republican majority in the Senate, Republicans have managed to pass a few bills that divide Democrats. President Joe Biden has even signed some of them into law, although he issued the first two vetoes of his presidency during this time period.

But so much still rests on whether McCarthy can lead through a debt ceiling showdown with Biden while neither capitulating on spending nor sending the country into default. His speakership may depend on his success.

McCarthy has been successful in identifying legislation that cannot be filibustered or kept off the legislative calendar by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), using the Congressional Review Act to repeal regulations published in the last 60 days and resolutions of disapproval of Washington, D.C. laws. Additionally, finding matters that divide Democrats has also been successful.

A generational and ideological split within the Democratic Party over crime has been identified, whereby Biden is trying to push Democrats away from defunding the police, while big-city mayors and councilors position themselves well to the president’s left. The vote on overturning a crime bill passed by the liberal Council of the District of Columbia was instructive in this regard.

Democrats were taken aback by Biden’s shift on this issue, with liberal activists and commentators condemning it as a sellout designed to win swing voters in 2024.

On declassifying intelligence on COVID-19 origins, Democrats did not mount even token opposition to legislation McCarthy moved to force Biden’s hand. McCarthy’s other COVID-19 victory came on lifting the national emergency.

A loss in the debt ceiling fight, either through the failure to extend before the bills come due or the inability to deliver on any spending cuts, will obviate most of these successes. However, McCarthy and his young House Republican majority are still entering in a better position than seemed likely after November’s results or January’s infighting.