Jim Justice could bring GOP one step closer to securing Senate in 2024

The West Virginia Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most important races in the 2024 election cycle, as Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) is likely to enter the race and join Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) in the Republicans’ battle to unseat Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).

Republicans view West Virginia as one of their best pickup opportunities as they seek to flip the Senate in their favor. Manchin, who is one of a handful of centrist Democrats known for working across the aisle, became a target for the GOP as the state continues to grow increasingly red.

MANCHIN’S EXPECTED TOP SENATE FOE WILL MAKE SPECIAL ‘ANNOUNCEMENT’ THURSDAY

Justice is expected to announce his Senate run on Thursday evening. The Federal Election Commission website showed that Justice submitted forms for “Jim Justice for U.S. Senate” on Thursday morning.

If he enters the race, he is likely to be Manchin’s toughest and top opponent. A January Morning Consult poll determined that Justice is the fifth most popular governor in the United States, with a 64% approval rating, indicating that Republicans, some Democrats, and some independents are in favor of his work as governor.

How that would transfer to the Senate race is yet to be seen, but the poll showed that Justice’s approval rating is 24% higher than Manchin’s.

Justice was a Democrat until 2017 when he announced during a rally with former President Donald Trump that he switched his party affiliation to Republican. Justice also endorsed Manchin for senator back in 2017, stating that Manchin would be a “key, integral part” of the Trump administration, which could prove to backfire for the governor heading into the race.

To face off against Manchin, Justice would have to first win a primary against Mooney, who announced his campaign in November 2022, shortly after Republicans’ weaker-than-expected midterm elections performance. Like many Republicans, Mooney believes Manchin is too “liberal” for West Virginians.

As of now, polls indicate Manchin has an early lead over Mooney. In a hypothetical matchup, Manchin leads Mooney, 55% to 40%. Justice is the only Republican who has a lead over Manchin, 52% to 42%, according to a Tarrance Group poll conducted Feb. 5-7.

Republicans are already pulling out the stops to prevent Manchin from a third term. One Nation, a Republican group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), launched a $1 million campaign that blasted Manchin for voting in favor of the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act that was signed last year.

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Sen. Ted Cruz (R-FL) endorsed Mooney for senator last week, praising him as a “strong conservative” who will “aggressively represent the values of the Mountain State in the Senate.”

Manchin has remained reserved on whether or not he is running for reelection for the seat he has held since 2010. He has said that, if he does run, he will announce his reelection campaign in early 2024. He is known for crossing party lines and recently began a tirade of criticism against President Joe Biden and more left-leaning Democrats for their policies. The West Virginia senator even said recently that he would vote to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act if the Biden administration does not adhere to the provisions.