Big Business: Obesity Drug Market Could Be Worth $200 Billion By 2030

Ben ZeisloftApril 29, 2023

Obesity Pills Could Create a $200 Billion Market in the Next Decade

Investment banks estimate that obesity pills could become a market worth between $50 billion and $200 billion within the next several years. Semaglutide treatments, sold under brand names such as Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus, have gained traction in recent months as celebrities use the drug to suppress appetite and slow gastric emptying, making users feel fuller for longer periods of time.

The Story of the Decade

“Immuno-oncology was the story of the last decade. It feels like obesity is the story of this decade,” says Barclays Head of European Equity Research Emily Field. The analyst initially predicted that semaglutide treatments could constitute a $100 billion market, but updated her estimate this week.

A Growing Problem

Some 650 million adults, 340 million adolescents, and 40 million children across the world are clinically obese, according to data from the World Health Organization. Half of the global population is forecasted to be either overweight or obese by 2035, creating a sizable opportunity for pharmaceutical companies if current perceptions of weight loss treatments were to shift.

The Future of Obesity Treatment

“Obesity has been viewed and treated mainly as a symptom of lifestyle choices. But with a greater understanding of obesity’s root causes, it is now classified medically as a chronic disease. This shift has helped spur new research into developing treatments, including a range of next-generation medications to manage weight, thereby preventing the illnesses that obesity causes,” says Morgan Stanley Managing Director Mark Purcell.

A Burden for Public Health Insurance Programs

An increased reliance on obesity drugs among overweight Americans could create significant burdens for public health insurance programs such as Medicare, which is currently prohibited by law from covering prescriptions for weight loss, but could soon be “compelled to cover antiobesity medications,” according to a perspective piece in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Continued Use is Key

Other research has indicated that patients must continue taking semaglutide treatments in order to avoid regaining weight. One study found that the typical participant lost nearly 11% of their body weight after 20 weeks of taking injections; over the next 48 weeks, however, those who ceased the treatments saw 7% increases in body weight, while those who continued saw 8% further declines.