Presidential historian analyzes Biden’s chances for Democratic nomination.

A presidential historian known for his accurate predictions says Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. doesn’t have a chance at beating President Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination.

But that’s not all. Allan Lichtman, the historian in question, also believes that Biden’s appearance of being disoriented has nothing to do with his actual ability in leading the country. Lichtman says that Biden has always been that way, for decades and decades, and that it doesn’t mean he’s not functioning well or has some kind of impairment.

The Keys to the White House

For more than four decades, Lichtman, who is listed among the 100 most influential experts in politics, has been hailed as an expert on predicting outcomes of bids for the presidency. His fabled system, known as “Keys To The White House,” has correctly predicted the outcomes of all U.S. presidential elections since 1984.

Under the theory, Lichtman applies 13 key factors, or what he calls “true/false” conditions, to determine the electoral college winner of the presidential elections. The keys include the status of the economy, any existing scandal, the charisma of the sitting president versus challenger, the state of military affairs, and social unrest at the time of the campaigns.

Why Biden Will Likely Win

In applying his theory to the 2024 elections, Lichtman said that Democrats will jeopardize their own party ticket “right off the bat” merely by choosing a candidate other than Biden because it compromises the “incumbency advantage” under his system. By not nominating Biden, it creates “an open seat”—another major key in Lichtman’s theory.

“The last thing you want is an open seat and a party battle,” he said, “No White House party has ever survived an open seat and a party battle.”

In disputing ageists, Lichtman compared Biden to the late President Ronald Reagan who was 77 when he was reelected. Reagan had also drawn speculation during his second term about his mental competency. However, Lichtman pointed out that 76-year-old former President Donald Trump is not too far behind in age than Biden.

RFK Jr.’s Chances

Lichtman said he is certain that the final showdown for the presidency will be another faceoff between Biden and Trump. Lichtman said that “so far,” he also doesn’t see any GOP challengers “having a chance” at “out rivaling” Trump.

In singling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as somebody he thought had potential to nudge Trump off the ticket, Lichtman said he’s changed his mind after seeing him talk on a national scale outside of state politics. “It turned out the run is better than the reality,” he said.

For Lichtman, the same goes for Biden’s short-list of challengers, which right now includes Marianne Willamson, former spiritual advisor to Oprah Winfrey, and RFK Jr. Name recognition, said Lichtman, is all the 69-year-old Kennedy has going for him.

“He’s such a minor candidate that he will be a ripple rather than a wave,” Lichtman said. “In my view, this is just a way for him to spread his bogus anti-vax ideas.” Lichtman added that “if he wasn’t a Kennedy, you wouldn’t be covering his ideas and nobody else would either.”