DeSantis must halt the polling decline if elected.

Gov. Ron DeSantis Faces Tough Road Ahead in Potential 2024 Presidential Run

Despite his recent drop in support, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has yet to enter the 2024 presidential contest. However, polling indicates that he’ll have a tough task ahead should he choose to do so.

Trump’s Criticism Takes a Toll on DeSantis

DeSantis has seen his support plummet in recent weeks amid an onslaught of criticism from former President Donald Trump, who is trying to declare the contest over and pivot toward the general election.

“I see that everybody is talking about the Republican Debates, but nobody got my approval, or the approval of the Trump Campaign, before announcing them,” Trump wrote in a recent Truth Social post. “When you’re leading by seemingly insurmountable numbers, and you have hostile Networks with angry, TRUMP & MAGA-hating anchors asking the ‘questions,’ why subject yourself to being libeled and abused?”

Skipping debates is a common tactic for incumbents, who don’t want to be seen on an equal footing with their challengers. President Joe Biden is trying the same thing against his token Democratic primary opponents.

DeSantis’s Backers Remain Optimistic

Despite the recent drop in support, DeSantis’s backers and veteran political observers say it’s far too early to count anyone out of the GOP primary, much less the second-ranked candidate before he even enters the race.

“Ron is doing well before having announced because of his aggressive and ambitious legislative session,” Ready for Ron Executive Director Gabriel Llanes said. “He’s gotten a lot of things through. It was one of the most productive legislative sessions in Florida history.”

Along with conservative policies like a six-week abortion ban and constitutional carry, the Florida legislature helped the governor by altering a bill that would’ve required him to resign from the office in order to seek the presidency.

DeSantis Needs to Broaden His Message

John Thomas, founder of the Ron to the Rescue PAC, thinks DeSantis should announce “yesterday.”

“The moment is slipping away,” he said. “I don’t think it’s gone, but any further delay would be a mistake.”

Thomas says DeSantis needs to declare and then shift toward a broad economic and public safety message to expand out from the culture war issues he’s known for.

“DeSantis’s core argument over Trump is that he’s more marketable in a general election,” Thomas said. “Culture wars are a great primary message, but it’s not a credible argument to say you’ll ride all the way to the White House on culture wars.”

Legal Troubles Could Hamper Trump’s Campaign

Despite his sizable lead and the initial bump his indictment afforded, Trump could still find himself hampered both personally and professionally by legal troubles. In addition to the New York case, he’s facing a case related to the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia, a special counsel investigating his mishandling of classified documents, and a separate special counsel related to the 2020 election.

The electorate could grow weary of all the legal headaches, but those cases could also make it more difficult for him to campaign. Sasha Tirador, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, predicts that GOP voters will be wary of the courtroom sideshow and eventually nominate DeSantis instead.

It’s Too Early to Tell

For now, it’s just too early to tell. Political observers point to candidates like the late John McCain, who overcame early front-runner Rudy Giuliani to secure the GOP nomination in 2008, or even Biden, who struggled in early 2020 before surging ahead following the South Carolina primary.

“We’ve seen people come from behind with weaker poll numbers than DeSantis and end up winning,” said Florida Atlantic University political professor Kevin Wagner. “Sometimes we play into the moment instead of looking at the longer pathway. It’s a long journey to the nomination.”

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