GOP Primary: The Invisible Race

Why Trump is Winning the 2024 Republican Nomination

Love him or hate him, Donald Trump is a force to be reckoned with in the Republican Party. Despite losing the House, the White House, the Senate, and governor’s mansions, being impeached twice, and facing multiple legal challenges, Trump remains the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination.

The Invisible Primary

So why is Trump doing so well? The answer may lie in the lack of resistance he’s facing from his fellow Republicans. This has been a truly invisible primary, with no serious internal threats to Trump’s candidacy. Historically, frontrunners come under attack from their rivals, but this year it’s as if we have two incumbent presidents in the race.

Trump’s closest rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, has not been able to gain ground despite his book rollout, international trade mission, and successful legislative session. DeSantis has tried to out-MAGA Trump on foreign policy and the culture war, but his current approach is not working. His reluctance to confront the frontrunner has created a weird situation in which Trump inadvertently delivers the arguments both for and against his candidacy.

The Democrats’ Strategy

The Democrats understand that Joe Biden’s best chance for a second term is to remobilize the anti-Trump coalition. If Republican challengers won’t say why Donald Trump should be denied the presidency, Democrats will. Contrasts will be drawn, memories will be jogged, and fears will be revived.

The Road Ahead

It’s still early in the game, and both the primary and general contests are a long way away. However, early GOP frontrunners tend to win the nomination, and Biden’s age and economic record are reasons for Democrats to worry. It’s at least plausible that a Republican could consolidate college-educated GOP voters and make inroads into Trump’s non-college coalition, especially if that Republican narrows the field to two candidates. First, though, that Republican would have to explain why he or she should be the nominee instead of Trump.

• Donald Trump remains the leader for the 2024 Republican nomination
• Trump faces no serious internal threats to his candidacy
• DeSantis has not been able to gain ground despite his efforts to out-MAGA Trump
• Democrats will draw contrasts and revive fears in the general election
• A Republican challenger would have to explain why they should be the nominee instead of Trump