Wall Street banks anticipate Fed rate hike in July.

(Reuters) – A few major U.S. banks are anticipating an exciting development in July. They expect the Federal Reserve to deliver another 25-basis-point rate hike after the central bank signaled that borrowing costs may need to rise by as much as half a percentage point by the end of the year.

Money markets are currently buzzing with anticipation, pricing in a nearly 72% chance of a 25 bps rate hike in July, and even predicting the first rate cut in March next year.

Following are forecasts from some big U.S. banks and their global counterparts:

Brokerage

July

September

Comments

Terminal

• BofA
• 25 bps hike
• 25 bps hike
• 5.5% – 5.75%
• Moved 25 bps expectation for June
• Citigroup
• 25 bps hike
• hike to September
• 5.75%
• JP Morgan
• 25 bps No hike
• 5.25% hike
• 5.5%
• Goldman Sachs
• 25 bps No hike
• Sees a possible second hike as more likely in November than September
• 5.25% – 5.50%
• Morgan Stanley
• No hike
• No hike
• “In the very near-term, the bar to a July hike is not insurmountable but we think would be an Olympic feat”
• 5.1%
• Deutsche Bank
• 25 bps No hike
• 5.3%
• UBS
• 25 bps hike

(Compiled by Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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