Top 11 Senate Seats Likely to Flip in 2024

Upcoming U.S. Senate Elections in 2024

In November 2024, voters across the nation will have the opportunity to cast their ballots for 34 U.S. Senate seats. This includes 20 seats currently held by Democrats, three by independents, and 11 by Republicans.

Among the 20 seats held by incumbent Democrats, at least eight are in states considered “competitive” by election ratings services. Notably, three Senate Democrats are in states that former President Donald Trump won in 2020—West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.

All 11 U.S. Senate seats held by GOP incumbents are in states rated as securely red. However, Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is seeking a third term, is considered a “battleground Republican” state, with a Democrat expected to be competitive. Additionally, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) may face a tough primary challenge if he decides to run.

The three independent Senate incumbents all caucus with the Democrats. Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are heavily favored for reelection, while Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who left the Democratic party in 2022, has not announced her intentions for 2024.

If Sinema seeks reelection, the 2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election could be a tight three-way race. Several Democrat and Republican candidates have already entered the primary races in this purple state.

Republicans are optimistic about their chances of gaining control of the Senate, which is currently led by Democrats with a slim majority of 51-49. While all 11 GOP-held Senate seats appear safe, up to nine of the 23 incumbent Democrats/Independents could face challenging reelections.

It’s important to note that the 2024 campaign season is still in its early stages, with several months to go before the first presidential primary. Deadlines for filing candidacy in some states are still months away.

Despite favorable projections in the past, Republicans were unable to secure a Senate majority in the 2022 elections. In fact, the last two cycles of 34 Senate seats on the ballot saw unexpected outcomes, with Democrats gaining seats in 2012 and losing seats in 2018.

Updates on Competitive Senate Races

West Virginia: Mooney-Justice GOP Duel

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is expected to face a tough reelection battle in a state that heavily favored Trump in 2020. Several Republicans, including Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney, have already entered the race, making the GOP primary highly competitive.

Arizona: Three-Way Race Possible

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has not officially announced her candidacy for reelection, but if she decides to run, she could face strong competition from both Democrats and Republicans. Rep. Ruben Gallego is already running for the Democratic nomination, while the Republican field is still uncertain.

Ohio: Brown Seeing Red

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is seeking reelection in a state that has shifted towards the Republican party. While he currently faces no significant challengers in the Democratic primary, several Republicans, including state Sen. Matt Dolan and entrepreneur Bernie Moreno, have declared their candidacies.

Montana: Tester Seeks Fourth Term

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is running for a fourth term in a traditionally red state. While no other Democrats have filed for the primary, two Republicans, Tim Sheehy and Thomas Madigan, have entered the race.

Pennsylvania: GOP Gears Up To Take Down Casey

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is seeking a fourth term, and as of now, he faces no opposition within his party. However, several Republicans, including Cory Widmann and Doug Mastriano, have filed to challenge him.

Nevada: Many Pondering Rosen Run

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada) is seeking a second term in a state that has seen close Senate races in the past. Several Republicans, including Jim Marchant and Ronda Kennedy, have already filed to challenge her, with more expected to join the race.

Michigan: Stabenow’s Retirement Opens Doors

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is not seeking reelection, creating an open seat in a closely contested state. Several candidates from both parties are expected to enter the race.