Biden’s NATO test amid Ukrainian counteroffensive.

President Joe Biden to Attend 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania

President Joe Biden is set to make a significant appearance at this year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The timing couldn’t be more critical, as Russia’s war in Ukraine reaches a crucial juncture.

However, Biden faces the challenge of navigating NATO alliance politics before the domestic political landscape surrounding the conflict changes ahead of next year’s election.

The Importance of the Vilnius NATO Summit

“Will it send a clear, unambiguous signal that Ukraine will secure NATO membership within a precisely specified and short time period and, in the interim, provide definitive key security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression in Europe and protect U.S. national security interests?”

– Ambassador Paula Dobriansky

Ambassador Dobriansky, a former undersecretary of state and now a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center, emphasizes the significance of the outcome of the Vilnius NATO summit. She raises the question of whether the summit will convey a strong message of support for Ukraine or merely offer vague promises, potentially signaling weakness and ambiguity.

Supporting Ukraine’s Efforts

“The top priority for NATO and its partners should be helping Ukraine ‘fully expel’ Russia.”

– Rebeccah Heinrichs, Head of the Congressional Commission on U.S. Strategic Posture

Heinrichs, an expert in U.S. strategic posture, emphasizes the importance of rallying behind Ukraine and providing real, binding commitments to strengthen the alliance’s defenses. She specifically mentions the need for a permanent German brigade in Lithuania and aligning with the British, Polish, and Baltic positions.

Furthermore, discussions about Ukraine’s NATO membership and strengthening the alliance’s defenses should take precedence over other matters, according to Heinrichs.

Other Priorities at the Summit

“In addition to Ukraine and approving a new NATO defense plan, other priorities include encouraging 2% gross domestic product defense spending to be the ‘floor’ instead of the ‘ceiling’ and conducting Indo-Pacific outreach.”

– Dan Hamilton, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow

Dan Hamilton, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, highlights additional priorities for the summit. These include advocating for increased defense spending and expanding NATO’s reach to the Indo-Pacific region. He also mentions potential points of tension, such as French opposition to a Japanese NATO office.

While Swedish and Ukrainian NATO membership is expected to be on the agenda, Biden has downplayed Ukraine’s prospects until after the war. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consented to Sweden’s ascension, despite previous demands for Turkey’s admission to the European Union.

It remains to be seen how the summit will address these critical issues and shape the future of NATO’s involvement in Ukraine and European security as a whole.

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