Four Democratic senators gear up for a fierce 2024 battle with impressive fundraising.

Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Defending Senate Majority

As Democrats seek to defend their slim majority in the Senate, several vulnerable incumbents are hitting new strides as they continue to rake in large sums of cash — especially in a handful of swing states that may determine the makeup of the upper chamber.

There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans — putting the GOP in a strong position to flip some crucial Senate seats that could easily shift the balance of power in the upper chamber.

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At least eight seats held by Democrats are considered to be tightly contested, with three considered toss-ups heading into the 2024 cycle. Despite their vulnerabilities, the incumbents are reporting strong fundraising numbers so far — giving hope to the party that it can hold on to the tight majority.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) raised nearly $1.3 million during the second quarter, far surpassing any other contender for the West Virginia Senate seat despite the incumbent not announcing whether he plans to run for reelection. Manchin now sits on a hefty war chest of $10.7 million in cash on hand, with his leadership Country Roads PAC reporting another $2.2 million.

Manchin is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents as he considers reelection in a state that President Joe Biden lost by nearly 40 points in 2020. The West Virginia senator has not announced whether he intends to run for a second term, stoking rumors he may be considering a third-party presidential run.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) also posted strong numbers during the second quarter after announcing a “record-breaking” haul of $5 million — marking the best second quarter fundraising total the Montana Democrat has seen in an off-election year, his office said. The haul gives a crucial boost to the vulnerable incumbent as he runs in a state former President Donald Trump won by 16.4 percentage points in 2020.

Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)

Republicans are also targeting Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in 2024, hoping to flip his seat red after losing Pennsylvania’s other Senate seat last year. Casey raked in more than $4 million during the second quarter, marking a record high for the incumbent.

Republicans haven’t found a candidate to challenge Casey, though National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) is rumored to be considering throwing his support behind David McCormick. The former hedge fund executive narrowly lost the GOP Senate primary to Dr. Mehmet Oz in 2022. Oz, who was backed by Trump, went on to lose the general election contest to Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA).

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) raked in $5 million over the last three months, far outpacing his Republican challenger and marking another record for a second quarter haul in an Ohio Senate race.

Ohio’s status as a swing state has faded in recent years, and Brown represents one of only four Democrats who hold a statewide office. The longtime progressive is preparing to fight off either state Sen. Matt Dolan or businessman Bernie Moreno, who are battling in the Republican primary. Both Republicans have experience on the campaign trail, as they each competed in the 2022 contest, eventually falling to Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who upset former Rep. Tim Ryan and handed Republicans one of their sole victories in Senate contests during a disappointing cycle.

Democrats hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with the advantage of having Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaker vote if needed. As a result, Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don’t regain the Oval Office, the party needs to secure two extra Senate seats.

Elsewhere on the 2024 map, there are 15 seats considered “solid Democrat,” including California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.

Another 10 seats are considered “solid Republican,” including Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, and both seats in Nebraska. One Senate seat, held by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), is considered “likely Republican.”

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