Ukraine challenges Putin to sink grain vessels.
Russian President Putin’s Blockade of Ukraine’s Grain Exports: A High-Stakes Game of Chicken
According to Ukrainian officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin may not have the courage to enforce his renewed blockade of Ukraine’s grain exports. This development raises the possibility of a high-stakes game of chicken that has U.S. officials on edge.
“If Russia doesn’t participate, and if it attacks the [grain] ships, it will be a huge blow to its image in the world, among the Global South,” said senior Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko. “So I don’t think that Russia would risk to attack Ukrainian ships carrying the grain going to the Global South and helping to prevent — well, actually, world hunger.”
This supposition has gained traction in Kyiv, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposal that Turkey and the United Nations disregard Putin’s decision to scrap the grain export deal. Zelensky emphasized the importance of food security for all nations and called out the Kremlin’s attempt to control the availability of food in different countries.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative: A Lifeline for the World’s Poorest Countries
Last year, Russian, Turkish, and Ukrainian leaders established a “joint coordination center” under the U.N. to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain. This initiative allowed 32.9 million metric tons of grain to leave the Black Sea, alleviating the pressure on global food prices and benefiting some of the world’s poorest countries.
“And the Black Sea Grain Initiative can and should keep operating – if without Russia, then without Russia,” Zelensky declared. “The agreement on the export of grain – this is an agreement with Turkiye and the UN – remains valid. The only thing that is needed now is its careful implementation – and decisive pressure from the world on the terrorist state.”
However, President Joe Biden’s team is concerned about the potential consequences of Russia’s decision. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that it could have a chilling effect on the pursuit of alternative options for exporting food products from Ukraine.
Putin justified the termination of the deal by claiming that Russia did not receive the expected benefits. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia would resume implementation once its conditions were met.
While the Kremlin tried to shift the blame for the collapse of the deal, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres held Russia accountable. He emphasized the positive impact of the agreement on global food prices and expressed determination to continue facilitating access to global markets for food products from both Ukraine and Russia.
The Biden administration, despite pressure from central and Eastern European allies, initially resisted joining Turkey in defying the blockade. However, they are now exploring alternative ways to ensure Ukrainian food products reach the world market.
“We’ll look to see what else can be done to find other ways to get Ukrainian food products on the world market,” Blinken stated. “But in terms of the volumes necessary, it’s really hard to replace what’s now being lost as a result of Russia weaponizing food.”
The situation remains uncertain, with the potential for significant consequences on global food security and prices. The world watches as this high-stakes game of chicken unfolds between Russia and Ukraine.
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