Washington Examiner

Fukuyama predicts Putin’s era may end soon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Grip ⁣on ‌Power Could⁢ Be Slipping

According to a prominent ‌international relations theorist ​and a ⁢top ⁣analyst‍ of Russia’s‌ security‍ networks, Russian ⁢President Vladimir Putin⁣ may lose‍ his hold on power within the next few​ months. Stanford ⁣University’s​ Francis Fukuyama‍ made this prediction‌ during ⁢the Aspen ⁤Security Forum, stating that he​ would ​not​ be⁣ surprised if Putin’s ‌regime comes tumbling down ⁣soon.

If this‍ turns​ out to be‌ true, it⁣ could serve as a cautionary​ tale ‌about the dangers⁢ of autocratic⁢ rule and the incompetence ⁢it can breed in the absence‌ of robust ‍debate. ⁣The ⁢recent⁢ brief and⁢ dramatic⁤ uprising ‍led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a warlord from the ‍Wagner Group, ⁣may not have ended Putin’s ⁣reign,‌ but it​ demonstrated the feasibility of a change ⁣in⁣ power.⁣ Christo Grozev,⁢ Bellingcat’s ​lead⁢ Russia investigator, noted that ‌Prigozhin’s actions showed that ⁤a ​change⁣ of power​ is possible, even ⁤without support from the security services.

Prigozhin’s ⁣march on⁤ Moscow ⁣was⁢ eventually abandoned ‌due to negotiations and an ⁣unexpected ⁣response​ from​ Putin and⁢ the FSB. Despite ⁢Prigozhin’s⁤ statement ​that he would not challenge presidential⁣ power or ‍the ⁤internal​ security services,⁢ the FSB declared his​ uprising an “armed⁤ mutiny.” British spy chief ⁣Richard Moore⁤ also criticized ⁢Putin’s handling⁣ of the situation, highlighting the⁣ fractures within the⁢ Russian⁤ elite⁣ and the weakness it demonstrated.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko played a role in brokering a‍ deal to avoid a major struggle ‍for control of the capital. As a ​result, Putin allowed‌ Prigozhin⁤ and Wagner Group‌ fighters⁤ to ⁣leave the country for Belarus. Prigozhin, ‌once known‌ as “Putin’s ‍chef,” released a video‌ showcasing‌ their new positions ⁣in‍ Belarus ‍and‍ promising to‌ turn the Belarusian army into⁣ the⁤ second-best army⁤ in⁢ the ⁣world.

This development throws domestic politics in Russia into⁤ chaos, as ⁢it prevents Putin⁢ from pursuing ​his plan⁤ to annex ‍Belarus ⁣in the 2024 elections. Without‌ a plan B, Putin’s grip on⁢ power​ becomes uncertain.​ Analysts like Grozev⁢ believe that⁤ Putin’s⁣ rule may not last until ‍the next ​elections.

Francis Fukuyama, ⁣encouraged​ by Grozev’s analysis, emphasized ⁢that⁤ autocratic regimes can​ appear powerful ​until the moment⁢ they collapse. The timing of⁣ such a collapse is difficult⁢ to⁤ predict.

Source: ⁢The​ Washington Examiner



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