Trump remains in the lead despite the possibility of a third indictment.
News of a Third Possible Indictment Against Former President Donald Trump
News of a third possible indictment against former President Donald Trump may have dominated the news cycle this week but has yet to become a real obstacle to him becoming the GOP’s 2024 presidential nominee.
The Republican Party, including some of his presidential rivals, have largely banded against the Department of Justice and FBI for “weaponizing” federal agencies to target Trump and conservatives, as Trump himself has argued. During a Fox News town hall with Sean Hannity on Tuesday night, Trump claimed special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 Capitol riot investigation was “election interference.”
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“Never been done like this in the history of our country, and it’s a disgrace,” Trump also added.
His chief presidential rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), has navigated a tightrope of not alienating ardent Trump Republican supporters but still campaigning as the top Trump-alternative candidate. “I think it was shown how he was in the White House and didn’t do anything while things were going on,” DeSantis said about Trump’s actions on Jan. 6 during a South Carolina campaign event on Tuesday. “He should have come out more forcefully, of course that, but to try to criminalize that, that’s a different issue entirely.”
In a CNN interview Tuesday afternoon, DeSantis then said, “This country is going down the road of criminalizing political differences, and I think that’s wrong,” and that he hopes Trump is not indicted.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), a 2016 Republican presidential candidate and former Trump rival, claimed that Smith’s investigation was unsurprising. “Water is wet. The sky is blue. Grass is green. There’s cocaine in the Biden White House,” he said on his Verdict with Ted Cruz podcast. “And Jack Smith and Merrick Garland are engaged in a political vendetta. Yes, yes, yes. Hell yes. This is election interference. Anyone who’s surprised, it was obvious that Smith was going to go after Donald Trump.”
Other Capitol Hill Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and House GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) spoke with Trump on Tuesday about how lawmakers could defend Trump against the Smith investigation. Other Republicans, including vocal pro-Trump ally Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), have already come to his defense. “The House of Representatives needs to take action to defund this special counsel investigation immediately,” Gaetz said on his podcast.
If there is another indictment, it could be yet another financial boom for Trump.
After Trump’s second indictment in June over allegations he mishandled classified documents, he raised $35 million in the second quarter, almost twice the $18.8 million he raised in the first quarter after he was indicted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on March 30 over a hush money payment scheme to a porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign. In the two weeks after the Manhattan indictment, his campaign said they raised $15.4 million, a sign of Trump’s continuing support among the Republican base. Trump has pushed his supporters to visit his website and join his movement, presumably to help fundraise for his campaign.
National polling shows that Trump’s dominance in the GOP 2024 race has not waned despite his increasing legal woes. A Morning Consult poll released this week shows Trump garnering 55% support among Republican primary voters, a 35 percentage point lead over DeSantis, who polls at 20%. No other candidate polls in the double digits after Trump and DeSantis.
The possible indictment may even lead more GOP voters to identify with Trump’s claims he is a victim of political targeting. Case in point: Republicans have also used the possible indictment to once again decry a two-tier justice system between Democrats and the GOP, in particular the treatment of President Joe Biden’s son Hunter and his legal problems. Hunter Biden agreed to plead guilty last month to federal charges over a failure to pay income taxes and illegally possessing a firearm.
“GOP primary voters certainly didn’t imagine the kid gloves treatment that Joe and Hunter Biden are getting from the DOJ and FBI right now. Because these are two sides of the same coin,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist based in Florida. “This is what is animating Republican primary voters because they don’t think that they’re getting a fair shake from the highest echelons of DC law enforcement.”
Jeffrey Lazarus, a political scientist at Georgia State University, said a possible indictment won’t likely hurt Trump in the GOP primary. “It doesn’t get at the reasons why Trump supporters like Trump,” he said. ”Trump supporters like Trump because of the things he’s getting indicted for.”
“The fact that he’s being indicted for them is not a minus for them,” he added. “It’s a confirmation that in their eyes, Trump is pushing all the right buttons or making all the right people mad or draining the swamp.”
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