Trump gains advantage in California GOP primary due to state rule change.
The California GOP Alters Delegate Rules, Potentially Boosting Trump’s 2024 Election Chances
The California GOP has made a significant change to its delegate allocation rules for the state’s presidential primary, a move that could give former President Donald Trump a substantial advantage over his opponents in the upcoming 2024 election.
Trump currently leads the pack as the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, with RealClearPolitics placing him at an average of 52.4% support, a nearly 40-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Other candidates like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota are trailing far behind.
Republican Candidates Test Their Limits in Criticizing Trump
In the predominantly Democratic state of California, the Republican Party is aiming to establish a stronger presence and flip Congressional seats by electing a viable GOP candidate for the presidency.
With the recent change in delegate rules, California Republicans may be paving the way for Trump while potentially discouraging other GOP primary candidates from campaigning in the state.
What is the New GOP Delegate Rule?
On Saturday, the California Republican Party’s 100-member executive committee voted 52-16 to alter the way delegates are allocated. Under the new rule, if a Republican candidate secures over 50% of the vote in the primary on March 5, they will receive all 169 delegates from the state, the highest number of delegates in any state.
If no candidate reaches this threshold, the delegates will be distributed proportionally based on the statewide vote.
State GOP leaders argue that this change will attract candidates to compete in California, providing an opportunity for them to campaign and make their case to voters. It also ensures that the party does not lose half of its delegates to the Republican National Convention for failing to meet delegate criteria.
Why Are Some Republicans Opposed to This Rule Change?
The previous delegate allocation system, in place for two decades, awarded three delegates for each congressional district won. This allowed candidates to strategically focus their campaigns on specific areas in California rather than targeting the entire state.
Former state GOP executive director Jon Fleischman, who served when the original system was adopted, believes that the new rule eliminates this type of competition among candidates. He argues that the cost of advertising statewide is too high, and the impact of motivating volunteers is too small, leading candidates to prioritize other states over California in both the primary and general elections.
Some Republican protesters have also criticized the decision, stating that it should have been discussed with all party members at the fall convention, rather than just the executive committee. However, state GOP officials claim that they were under a deadline to submit the new rules to the Republican National Committee to maintain delegate allotment.
Where Do the Top Candidates Stand on This Rule Change?
Trump’s team fully supports the California GOP’s rule change, while DeSantis’s team has criticized the state’s Republicans for disregarding voters who desire a different GOP candidate in the 2024 general election.
An executive committee member revealed that they had spoken to Trump’s campaign, and they expressed support for the rule change, citing polling data that suggests Trump could secure over 50% of primary voters in California.
Ken Cuccinelli, founder of the pro-DeSantis Never Back Down super PAC, strongly criticized the state GOP’s decision to dismiss an alternative proposal that could have favored DeSantis. Under that proposal, three delegates would have been awarded per congressional district, with two going to the winner and one to the second-place finisher. This method would have likely benefited DeSantis, who consistently ranks as the runner-up in most polls.
Despite the rule changes, Cuccinelli remains confident that Governor DeSantis will ultimately become the Republican nominee and the 47th president of the United States.
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