Impact of Trump Indictment on McConnell Successors
Top Republican Lawmakers Face a Critical Decision as Trump Faces Third Indictment
Three influential Senate Republicans find themselves at a crossroads as former President Donald Trump prepares to face his third indictment. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD), Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY), and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) must now make a choice: withdraw their support from Trump and risk their leadership positions, or continue to stand by him and potentially face a repeat of the disappointing 2022 midterm elections.
Their Leadership Positions Hang in the Balance
As potential successors to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the stance these three senators take on the former president could significantly impact their chances of leading the Republican Party in the future. McConnell and Trump have had a tumultuous relationship, with McConnell intensifying his attacks since the underwhelming performance of Republicans in the 2022 midterms. Many GOP leaders, including McConnell, blamed Trump for endorsing hard-line conservative candidates who defeated more moderate Republicans in the primaries but failed to secure victories against Democrats, resulting in Democrats maintaining a Senate majority and Republicans holding a slim majority in the House.
Since the indictments, Thune, Barrasso, and Cornyn have expressed differing views on Trump’s legal troubles and his viability as a candidate. As potential leaders in the Senate, their support for the party’s top nominee could impact their ability to garner support from fellow senators and voters.
“The American people have lost faith in Biden’s Justice Department,” Barrasso told Punchbowl News. “They are uncomfortable watching the current president weaponize the justice system against his political opponent.”
Barrasso, who is up for reelection in 2024, appears to be aligning himself with Trump, positioning himself as a frontrunner for the GOP nomination. Known for his ability to bridge the gap between GOP leadership and the party’s more hard-line members, Barrasso’s pro-Trump statements may be a strategic move to gain support from Republican senators in future leadership elections.
Thune, on the other hand, has distanced himself from Trump, following the lead of several traditional Republicans who either endorse another 2024 GOP candidate or explicitly state that Trump is unelectable. Thune has thrown his support behind Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), whose campaign appeals to established Republicans and rarely mentions Trump in speeches or social media posts. Thune has refrained from offering opinions on whether the indictments against Trump are a “weaponization” of the federal government.
“There are very serious allegations in the indictment, and I think the Justice Department — as they attempt to prove their case — they’ve got a high burden of proof to convince people that they’re handling this fairly and as they would for any other elected official,” Thune said in June when Smith indicted Trump for his handling of classified documents.
Despite the indictments, polling indicates that a majority of Republican voters still support Trump in the primary. Only 13% of Republicans believe Trump committed “serious federal crimes,” according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
Cornyn, who received Trump’s endorsement in the 2020 election, openly questions whether Trump has a chance of defeating President Joe Biden in the 2024 general election. Like Thune and McConnell, Cornyn is wary of Trump’s lingering influence over the Republican Party. He doubts Trump’s ability to appeal to moderate Republicans and independent voters, a crucial factor in winning a general election.
Since then, Trump has criticized Cornyn as a RINO (Republican In Name Only), and his campaign has labeled the Texas senator as part of “the problem.”
The impact of Thune, Barrasso, and Cornyn’s comments on Trump will depend on whether Trump secures the Republican presidential nomination. The Republican National Committee has made it a rule that all primary candidates must pledge to endorse the GOP nominee. If Trump becomes the nominee, it is likely that Thune and Cornyn, regardless of their initial preferences, will also offer their support to the former president in the general election. McConnell, who has refrained from discussing Trump’s legal battles and endorsing a candidate in the 2024 primary, will likely set aside his differences with the former president and rally Republican voters to defeat Biden in 2024.
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