Niger coup plotters resist US, pleasing Russia.
President Biden’s Administration Faces Challenges in Thwarting Coup Plot in West Africa
The Biden administration is facing growing doubts about its ability to prevent a coup plot against a key ally in West Africa, Niger. Despite the military junta’s relative isolation, the State Department remains realistic about the situation.
“We do still have hope, but we are also very realistic,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. “At the same time, we are making clear, including in direct conversations with the junta leaders, what the consequences are of failing to return to the constitutional order.”
A Defiant Military Junta
The would-be military dictator, Abdourahamane Tchiani, has taken a defiant stance. He refused to meet with the State Department’s second-highest-ranking official and warned against any regional delegation entering the country.
“They’re in an active effort to try and consolidate their position,” said Dr. Daniel Eizenga, a research fellow at the National Defense University’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies. “They’re looking to solidify their position before engaging in any further diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s acting top deputy attempted negotiations but was denied a meeting with Tchiani and received a cold welcome from his top defense deputy.
“They are quite firm in their view on how they want to proceed, and it does not comport with the constitution of Niger,” said acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. “So again, we were very frank about what’s at stake. We kept open the door to continue talking. But again, it was difficult today, and I will be straight up about that.”
International Support and Concerns
The level of support Tchiani can expect from abroad remains uncertain. While Russia initially condemned the coup plot, other Moscow-backed military regimes in the region have expressed support for Tchiani. However, doubts remain about the true nature of public support.
“People assume that because you see people on the streets, it is an expression of actual support rather than people who might have been paid to show up at protests,” Miller said. “It does seem odd to me that if your country is suffering an attempted military takeover, the idea that the first thing anyone would do is run to a store and buy a Russian flag. That strikes me as somewhat an unlikely scenario.”
Russia implicitly praised Tchiani for rebuffing Nuland’s overture, while the detention of President Bazoum has sparked a diplomatic storm. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is considering military intervention if sanctions and a blockade fail to sway the junta leaders.
Seeking a Compromise
While some may believe that military intervention is the only solution, experts urge ECOWAS and the junta to seek a compromise to avoid further conflict in the region.
“This would be a disaster for a region where war has already taken so many lives. Instead, ECOWAS and the junta (CNSP) need to seek a compromise,” said Dr. Tatiana Smirnova, an expert on the Sahel region.
Nigerian officials are considering their options, but the country’s senate has signaled opposition to military intervention. Tchiani’s co-conspirators have cited economic pressure as a reason to refuse discussions with mediators.
A Delicate Balance
The junta’s truculent posture may not reflect the true level of support within the Nigerien military. While some military leaders do not support the coup, Bazoum’s vulnerability leaves them helpless. However, the junta’s dependence on U.S. and international aid also puts them in a vulnerable position if aid is withdrawn.
“They don’t have a lot of leverage” beyond holding Bazoum in custody, according to Eizenga. “When they’re unable to pay the soldiers… it’ll be a pretty quick change of pace for what kind of support they have within the military.”
While the situation remains uncertain, U.S. officials are determined to continue pressing for a return to democracy and the constitutional order in Niger.
" Conservative News Daily does not always share or support the views and opinions expressed here; they are just those of the writer."
*As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases
Now loading...