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NY Fed survey shows widespread decline in inflation expectations.

Americans Expect Weaker Inflation, Improved Personal Finances

By Michael S. Derby

In a recent survey released by​ the New York Federal Reserve, Americans expressed their expectations ​of weaker inflation in the coming years. However, they also reported more positive views of their‍ personal financial situations.

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The survey conducted by the New ⁤York Fed revealed that⁣ respondents expect inflation a year from now to be around⁢ 3.5%, down from‍ the previous expectation of 3.8% in June. This marks ⁢the lowest reading ⁢since April 2021. Expectations for inflation ⁤at the three- ​and five-year horizons also moderated to 2.9% from 3%, according to the New York Fed.

The decline in ⁤inflation ⁢expectations​ coincided with a​ decrease in price‌ pressures across various categories. The survey showed that Americans predicted lower inflation rates for gasoline, food, medical costs, college costs, ⁣and rent. Notably, the expectation for rising home prices‌ decreased⁣ slightly from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July.

These findings⁢ come at a time when key measures of inflation have been cooling down. The moderation has raised questions about whether the U.S.‍ central bank will need to raise interest ​rates again, following ⁤a recent quarter-point increase to the 5.25%-5.50% range.

The decrease in expected inflation is seen as a positive sign for the outlook on price pressures, as policymakers consider‌ the⁤ predicted path of inflation ​to strongly influence its current state.

The survey also revealed more positive ​sentiments regarding personal finance and the job market. Respondents reported improved views​ of their personal financial situations compared to a year ago, with a rise in those expecting better circumstances ‌in the future. This optimism ​reached its highest level⁣ since September 2021.⁣ Additionally, expectations for the job market improved relative to the previous month.

(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)

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