China’s decline and Biden’s incompetence may drive Xi Jinping towards war.

China’s Economy in Trouble

China’s economy is facing serious challenges. The country’s experiment with state-directed capitalism is coming to an end under the control of paramount leader Xi⁤ Jinping. The youth unemployment rate and local government debt problems are growing, while the⁣ real estate market is in disarray. China is also experiencing deflation and has even cut the salaries⁤ of mid-level government officials.

As a result, the longstanding agreement between the CCP and the Chinese ​people ​— economic growth in exchange for political repression — is null‌ and void.

This presents Xi with ⁣a conundrum. He can relax controls to improve the ‍economy, but that⁢ would mean admitting error and losing face. Worse, if the economy doesn’t improve, Xi’s reign will‌ be seen as a ⁤failure.

But there’s a way​ out, one common to ⁤dictators: start a war to stoke nationalist fervor.

This option is often overlooked by Western observers, who feel comfortable in their ‍mirror-imaging fallacies. Under this bias, they assume that foreign regimes⁤ act ⁢with the same rationale as the nations ⁣where they have lived, studied, vacationed, or worked.

Lessons from History

In 1982, when a worldwide recession ​was‌ hitting developing nations ‍harder ⁤than the U.S., the Argentinian junta was running low on ⁣popularity. Then, on April 2, Argentina’s⁣ military leaders made the rash decision ⁢to invade Islas las Malvinas — known in most of the ⁤world as‌ the Falkland Islands, a ⁣British ⁤territory. For weeks, the ⁣people celebrated‍ the junta amid a swelling of nationalist pride. But ‌in just over two months, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher put together⁣ a British task⁣ force and retook the islands. Within weeks, the Argentinian junta was ejected from power.

So, what might the run-up to ⁤conflict in ⁤the Pacific​ and first few‌ weeks afterward look like?

Testing Western Resolve

Michael Lucci, founder and ⁣president of⁣ the State Armor Project, has thought about how China would prepare⁢ to invade Taiwan, the ‌self-governed democracy of 24 million people only 90 miles off‌ the coast‌ of ⁤China. Lucci believes China would want assurances that the U.S. would not come to Taiwan’s aid.

The⁢ Taiwan Relations Act, signed ​into law ​by President Jimmy Carter in 1979, considers ​“…any effort to determine the future‌ of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by​ boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security ​of the‌ Western Pacific‍ area and of​ grave ⁣concern to the United States.”

Escalating to ‍War

Lucci believes China is already⁤ testing American⁤ resolve. The ​spy⁤ balloon incident is ‌one clear ⁤example. President Joe Biden did ​nothing. To that we could​ add more‍ than 100,000 deaths per year from fentanyl largely cooked in Mexico from Chinese ingredients, the recent water‌ cannoning of Philippine resupply vessels, and the use of military-grade lasers and aggressive ship and ‌jet ⁣maneuvers around ⁣U.S. Navy ships as well as Navy and Air Force aircraft.

China has other means to test ‌America’s willingness to fight. It is known that China has inserted kill switches in the large high-voltage transformers it has sold to ‍the U.S. This led then-President Donald Trump to‌ sign an executive order in 2020 banning the importation of these large​ transformers, which carry 70 percent of ‌America’s electricity, from “foreign adversaries.” Biden promptly⁢ lifted​ the ban.

What if China selectively blacked out a major U.S. city or region? Some U.S. metropolitan⁢ areas, already reeling under⁤ defunded police and increasing crime,⁣ might quickly descend into looting and violence.

The prudent response would be to send a contingent of Marines to Taiwan while reinforcing the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan. But Biden would likely remain passive. As we have seen in Hawaii‌ in the ‍wake of the wind-driven fires, ‍the disaster response would be slow and bungled. Plus, Taiwan,‌ on the verge of a presidential election on Jan. 13, 2024, might turn down an offer from the ⁤U.S., fearing it would provoke China.

Alternatively, China might try to seize Lesser Orchid ​Island, a small, uninhabited island measuring about half a mile on its sides, just three miles south of Orchid Island, itself about 20 miles east of the southern tip of Taiwan. Such an action likely wouldn’t involve⁢ shooting‌ with Taiwanese forces and could give China an indication of‌ the willingness of the U.S., Japan, the ‍Philippines, and Taiwan to respond.

China’s Invasion of Taiwan

Sensing ⁣weakness and irresolution from⁤ Biden, who was responsible for the embarrassing debacle in Kabul and the indecision in the first few weeks of Russia’s ⁤invasion of Ukraine, China might decide to invade Taiwan. ⁢If so, the invasion could feature ‍a lot more violence than that which Russia brought upon Ukraine. Taiwan is a far smaller ⁣target, and, while separated by 90 miles of ocean, China has built thousands ‍of guided missiles for the purpose⁤ of ⁢attacking Taiwan.

China has been practicing commandeering its vast civilian fleet in⁣ support of amphibious operations. In mid-August, two civilian roll-on/roll-off ships, particularly useful in military operations, were seen steaming south, far from their usual routes ⁤in the Yellow‍ Sea, to join another two such vessels at a navy base in Hainan Island.

But PRC planners may assess that the‌ U.S.,‌ Japan, and other nations might not easily be cowed — or at least might eventually swing into action to defeat an invasion of Taiwan. In ​this case, the PRC would ⁢likely ⁤preempt U.S. and Japanese military assets in the region that could contribute to⁣ a defense of Taiwan. China might attack Okinawa, Guam, other bases, and ships at sea with little to no warning.

Attacks on America and Deadly Trade‌ Disruptions

Coincident with ​such an attack, China may hit the American homeland by severing oceanic internet cables, attacking the electric ⁣grid, damaging key infrastructure, such as pipelines ⁢and municipal water systems, and even‍ carrying out direct sabotage‌ and assassination operations.

Regarding the latter, since​ the beginning of the year, sources ⁢at the border with Mexico have described an abrupt​ shift in the nature of Chinese nationals illegally crossing into America. ⁣In​ the ⁤past, ⁤family units crossed. They would eagerly tell‌ Border Patrol agents their stories —⁣ back when‍ the Border Patrol had ⁢the ‍increasingly rare luxury of interviewing would-be migrants.

Today most illegal aliens are military-aged‌ and very tightlipped, simply wanting⁤ to be released to go⁢ on their way to the U.S. interior. These ⁣young Chinese nationals might simply be fleeing the increasingly bad economy in the⁢ PRC, or they might be part of a vanguard of saboteurs, or both.

Lastly, with America’s overwhelming dependence on China for ‍key medicines, such as antibiotics, and the world supply chain’s⁢ reliance ‌on China for basic drug ingredients, a disruption in trade would threaten to kill more ​people than there​ are military members in the line ‌of fire.

China’s worsening economy, combined with the ⁢understanding that the sluggish and inept Biden administration‍ won’t likely remain in office for long, ⁢increases the likelihood of Xi playing the jingoistic card of war and invasion.