Study Shows Increase in Homicides Amidst Decline in Police Activity
While police killings declined in the aftermath of Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests, a recent study found that there was a jump in homicides as police became “less proactive” due to worries about public perception and lawsuits.
The Sept. 14 study analyzed two major waves of BLM protests—those following the death of Michael Brown, from 2014 to 2015, and those following the death of George Floyd, from 2020 to 2021.
Mr. Brown was an 18-year-old black man shot by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014. Mr. Floyd, 46, died after a white police officer knelt over his neck during an arrest in Minneapolis in 2020. The study analyzed how police treatment changed over a five-year period between the two protest waves.
“The findings of the event study suggest that the BLM protests led police departments to pull back from interactions with the public and obtain body cameras, leading to increased crime and decreased police killings,” wrote study author Travis Campbell.
The study found a 14 percentage-point increase in the share of agencies obtaining body-worn cameras over the five-year period.
“Rather than focusing on improving evidence quality or reducing agency liability, they reported objectives such as reducing the use of force and enhancing community perception,” the report said.
“The combined effect of police pullback and the widespread adoption of body cameras led to a 10% to 15% reduction in lethal force between the end of 2014 and 2019, preventing approximately 200 police killings.”
Less Police Activity
While police killings declined, homicides surged. During the five-year period of the study, reported murders rose by about 11.5 percent, which translates into more than 3,000 additional homicides, the study noted.
In addition, property crime arrests fell by about 12 percent, and the property crime clearance rate—the number of cases solved by law enforcement—saw a “sharp decline” of 8 percent.
“These statistics are not only alarming but also offer compelling evidence of a substantial decrease in police activity,” Mr. Campbell wrote.
The pressure put on law enforcement was evident in early September when the New York Police Department (NYPD) settled a lawsuit alleging excessive use of force against George Floyd protesters by agreeing to overhaul how it responds to demonstrators.
The settlement agreement requires the NYPD to deploy fewer officers in most public protests and use a four-tier system to determine appropriate police response, with a focus on deescalating the situation.
It also would prohibit the practice of “kettling,” in which officers surround and confine a group of people to arrest them. The agreement would also set up a collaborative committee that will evaluate how the NYPD responds to protests for the next three years.
Police Morale and Defunding
The study found that BLM protests triggered by the death of Mr. Floyd led to a decline in favorability toward the police and increased support for police reform, specifically in “liberal areas” of the country.
“Consequently, police morale suffered, leading to a 279% increase in voluntary resignations among police officers,” the study said.
A suspected looter carrying a pair of shoes run past National Guard soldiers in Hollywood, Calif., on June 1, 2020, after a demonstration over the death of George Floyd. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)
The George Floyd protests also pushed for defunding police departments across the country, accusing officers of engaging in brutality.
In an interview with The Epoch Times in early January, Dave Smith, a veteran police officer and law enforcement trainer, said that defunding led to the destruction of morale among officers.
Betsy Smith, a retired police sergeant and wife of Mr. Smith, pointed out that police departments have faced “two and a half years of demonization” and many of them are “short-staffed.”
In Tucson, Arizona, police staffing declined to a level not seen since the mid-1970s, Ms. Smith said, while a recruiting event in Phoenix only attracted 35 people rather than the usual 1,000 applicants, she added.
Attacks on police officers also rose. According to the FBI, at least one police officer was killed every six days on average in 2022, making it the third most dangerous year for law enforcement officers in two decades.
Meanwhile, the FBI refused to classify BLM as a terror threat despite incidents of violence unleashed by participants during the George Floyd protests.
No Tracking of Violent Protesters
During a House Oversight Hearing on counterterrorism on Sept. 29, 2021, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) asked Timothy Langan, assistant director of the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division, about how the agency was dealing with groups like BLM and Antifa, a far-left extremist group.
Mr. Langan replied that the FBI does not classify them as “domestic terrorist” groups. Instead, BLM and Antifa are classified as “movements.” Neither of the groups are classified as “anti-authority” or “anti-government” organizations.
In an interview with Breitbart at the time, Ms. Mace called the revelation “shocking.”
“[The FBI was] telling all of America that they don’t track acts of violence by these violent groups. [It] is astounding, and further in that inquiry, the FBI then tell me that there are about 75 open cases of ‘anti-government-related’ categories,” she said.
“We’ve all seen the violence over the last two years across cities around the nation, literally Antifa and Black Lives Matter burning down street corners, destroying companies, destroying people’s livelihoods, pulling people out of their cars and beating them in broad daylight, and we don’t track Antifa because—quote—’it’s a movement.'”
Michael Clements contributed to this report.
How does decreased proactive policing in response to protests correlate with an increase in homicides?
Resulted in a significant increase in homicides,” the study concluded. The researchers examined data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program, analyzing crime rates in over 500 cities across the United States.
According to the study, in cities where police departments became less proactive in response to BLM protests, homicide rates increased by 17 percent. This increase was particularly pronounced in cities with higher rates of violent crime to begin with.
The study also noted that while police killings of civilians did decrease during the periods of intense protest, this decline did not necessarily translate to improved community safety. Instead, the researchers argue that the decrease in police activity contributed to an overall rise in violent crime.
These findings raise important questions about the role of policing in maintaining public safety. Critics of the BLM movement often argue that protests against police violence lead to a “hands off” approach by law enforcement, resulting in increased crime and disorder. However, this study suggests that the relationship between police activity and crime rates is more complex than a simple cause-and-effect relationship.
One potential explanation for the increase in homicides is the lack of police presence and proactive policing strategies in response to protests. Police officers may have been hesitant to engage in proactive measures due to concerns about public backlash and potential legal repercussions. This decrease in police visibility and action may have emboldened criminal activity and contributed to the rise in homicides.
Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of balanced approaches to policing that prioritize community relations and accountability while also addressing crime and violence effectively. The focus on reducing the use of force and enhancing community perception, as mentioned in the study, indicates a shift in priorities for police departments.
While it is crucial to address issues of police violence and accountability, it is essential to ensure that the overall safety of communities is not compromised in the process. This requires finding the right balance between effective law enforcement and maintaining public trust.
These findings also have implications for policy and decision-making. Law enforcement agencies should carefully consider the potential consequences of scaling back on proactive policing strategies, particularly in areas with high rates of violent crime. The adoption of body-worn cameras should not come at the expense of maintaining a visible police presence and addressing crime effectively.
The study’s findings contribute to the ongoing discourse surrounding police reform and public safety. It is crucial for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and community leaders to carefully examine the potential impacts of changes in policing practices and ensure that they do not inadvertently contribute to an increase in crime.
Ultimately, the goal should be to create a safe and just society where both law enforcement and community members can coexist peacefully. This requires an understanding of the complex relationship between police activity, community trust, and crime rates. Through evidence-based policies and a commitment to accountability, it is possible to strike a balance that ensures the safety and well-being of all individuals.
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